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Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Improves in January

Washington, DC, January 18, 2023 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the January 2024 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1 trillion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 48.6, an increase from the December index of 42.5.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent David Normandin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance, said, “I expect that Wintrust will have a good year in the market as we have stable liquidity, attractive cost of funds, and an engaged and motivated team. I expect to continue to see challenges in the overall economy as well as specific segments, and we are diversified and nimble to move to the opportunity. The leasing industry has historically performed better than other asset classes through tougher times because of the nimble and creative nature of the industry. I expect that the industry will come through this next couple years stronger having learned from our experiences.”

January 2024 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 48.6, an increase from the December index of 42.5.

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 20.7% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, an increase from 3.7% in December. 62.1% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 66.7% the previous month. 17.2% believe business conditions will worsen, a decrease from 29.6% in
13.8% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 3.7% in December. 65.5% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, down from 74.1% the previous month. 20.7% believe demand will decline, a decrease from 22.2% in December.
13.8% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 3.7% in December. 75.9% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, up from 74.1% last month. 10.3% expect “less” access to capital, down from 22.2% the previous month.
When asked, 6.9% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 18.5% in December. 79.3% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 63% last month. 13.8% expect to hire fewer employees, down from 18.5% in December.
None of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” unchanged from the previous month. 93.1% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” up from 85.2% in December. 6.9% evaluate it as “poor,” down from 14.8% last month.
13.8% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, up from 3.7% in December. 65.5% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, a decrease from 66.7% last month. 20.7% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, a decrease from 29.6% the previous month.
In January, 17.2% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, an increase from 14.8% the previous month. 65.5% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, down from 66.7% in December. 17.2% believe there will be a decrease in spending, down from 18.5% last month.

January 2024 MCI-EFI Survey Comment from Industry Executive Leadership:

Captive, Small Ticket
“We still see demand for light and medium-duty trucks to satisfy ever-growing e-commerce business. We also see thousands of light and medium-duty trucks waiting for bodies to be upfitted. When the body companies catch up with chassis awaiting upfitting, we will see a lot of opportunities for equipment finance companies in this sector over the next three to six months.” Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Isuzu Finance of America, Inc.

ABOUT THE MCI

Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross-section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents, and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

Current business conditions
Expected product demand over the next four months
Access to capital over the next four months
Future employment conditions
Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
S. economic conditions over the next six months
Business development spending expectations
Open-ended question for comment

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/, included in the Foundation Forecast eNewsletter, and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and student talent development programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the advancement of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

2024 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot Now Available

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation has released the 2024 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot, an indispensable information resource for industry participants. Designed for use in executive briefings and presentations, the presentation slide deck summarizes the current conditions and projections for the U.S. economy and equipment finance industry with clear, easy-to-digest charts and short narratives of key trends.

Among the wide range of details in the 2024 Snapshot:

The Foundation projects that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.7%.
- The U.S. economy had a remarkably strong Q3 2023 of 5.2% SAAR growth, with consumer and government spending boosting growth and investment, while the labor market remained strong.
- Robust economic growth was paired with a steady decline in inflation.

Economic tailwinds include:
- In Q3, consumer spending expanded 3.6% annualized, government spending grew solidly driven by an 8.2% annualized federal defense spending, and residential investment grew 6.2% annualized.

Special topics highlighted in the snapshot include consumer financial stress, the labor market, global conflicts and their impact on energy prices and U.S. businesses, weak global demand, the housing market and manufacturing sector.

Equipment and software investment is expected to grow at a 2.2% pace in 2024.
- E&S investment was sluggish in Q3, rising 0.5% (annualized) after 7.0% growth in Q2.
- Elevated interest rates will continue to drag on investment in 2024, and the climate for near-term investment is still relatively weak.
New business volume growth reported in ELFA’s Monthly Leasing and Finance Index was up 0.7% year to date in October, currently trailing the rate of inflation. After strong growth in early 2023, year-to-date new business volume growth softened in Q2 and Q3 in the face of interest rates and tightening lending standards.

Prepared by Keybridge Research and updated quarterly, the snapshot is available for free download at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/industry-snapshot/

Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Steady in December

Washington, DC, December 20, 2023 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the December 2023 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1 trillion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 42.5, steady with the November index of 42.8.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Dave B. Fate, CEO, Stonebriar Commercial Finance, said, “In the most recent survey, most opined that the markets would remain steady through early 2024 with very few signs anticipating dramatic changes in the next several months. Subsequent economic reports over the past two weeks, including the Fed’s announcement that further rate hikes are no longer forecasted, with various institutions predicting multiple rate cuts throughout 2024, the first of which some predict as early as March–have caused major positive shifts in sentiment in the bond and equity markets the past two weeks. Equity markets have rallied to all-time highs, mortgage rates dropped below 7%, and overall market sentiment has improved significantly, which I expect will continue in the coming months.”

December 2023 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 42.5, relatively unchanged from the November index of 42.8.

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 3.7% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, an increase from none in November. 66.7% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 74.1% the previous month. 29.6% believe business conditions will worsen, an increase from 25.9% in November.
3.7% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from none in November. 74.1% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, unchanged from the previous month. 22.2% believe demand will decline, a decrease from 25.9% in November.
3.7% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 11.1% in November. 74.1% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, unchanged from last month. 22.2% expect “less” access to capital, up from 14.8% the previous month.
When asked, 18.5% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, an increase from 14.8% in November. 63% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, down from 77.8% last month. 18.5% expect to hire fewer employees, up from 7.4% in November.
None of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” a decrease from 3.7% the previous month. 85.2% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” up from 81.5% in November. 14.8% evaluate it as “poor,” unchanged from last month.
3.7% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, unchanged from November. 66.7% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, an increase from 44.4% last month. 29.6% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, a decrease from 51.9% the previous month.
In December, 14.8% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, unchanged from the previous month. 66.7% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, down from 70.4% in November. 18.5% believe there will be a decrease in spending, an increase from 14.8% last month.

December 2023 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“Repeat business from existing customers remains strong. While other lenders have pulled back for various reasons, our program has remained consistent without major changes to credit requirements. However, we are seeing some of the fallout from increased equipment values that were a result of low inventory in 2020-2021.” Charles Jones, Senior Vice President, 1^st Equipment Finance (FNCB Bank)

Independent, Small Ticket
“Looking out to 2024, we expect sales of equipment and transportation to be softer.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

ABOUT THE MCI

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

Current business conditions
Expected product demand over the next four months
Access to capital over the next four months
Future employment conditions
Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
S. economic conditions over the next six months
Business development spending expectations
Open-ended question for comment

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
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Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

2024 Economic Outlook Forecasts 2.2% Expansion in Equipment and Software Investment, 1.7% GDP Growth

Washington, DC, December 20, 2023 – The U.S. economy likely averted a recession in 2023 and appears to be on track for a “soft landing” in 2024, according to the 2024 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook. Real equipment and software investment growth is projected to be 2.2% next year — slightly slower than the growth rate experienced over the last 12 months — with stronger investment activity expected in the latter half of the year. The report, which was prepared by Keybridge and released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, also forecasts real GDP growth to be 1.7% in 2024, down from an estimated 2.4% in 2023.

The Foundation’s report is focused on the $1.16 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry and highlights key trends in equipment investment, placing them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.

Zack Marsh, CLFP, Foundation Chair and SVP, Accounting and Analysis, AP Equipment Financing, said, “The Foundation’s annual outlook demonstrates that the economy has thus far managed to ‘thread the needle’ by maintaining solid growth in the face of higher interest rates while inflation returns to more acceptable levels. However, it also reveals that we’re not out of the woods yet, and a recession is still possible during the first half of the year. Overall, while breakout growth in equipment and software investment looks unlikely in 2024, the prospect of lower interest rates and acceptable inflation levels should keep the industry on sound footing.”

Highlights from the 2024 Outlook include:

Equipment and software investment growth expanded at a sluggish 0.5% rate (annualized) in Q3 after growing 7.0% annualized in the previous quarter. Elevated interest rates will continue to drag on investment in 2024, and the climate for near-term investment is still relatively weak. The Foundation expects modest growth in Q4 and the first half of 2024, but anticipates a pick-up in investment activity during the second half of the year.
The U.S. economy likely averted a recession in 2023, expanding a robust 5.2% annualized in Q3 as the labor market proved surprisingly resilient to higher interest rates and consumers continued to spend. Inflation has been brought to more acceptable levels without triggering widespread job loss, and the combination of a healthy labor market, cooling inflation, and improved consumer sentiment make a “soft landing” scenario increasingly likely. Still, it is premature to declare victory: high government expenditures contributed much more to GDP in 2023 than they will in 2024, consumer spending may soften amid rising financial stress, and global economic conditions remain weak.
The manufacturing sector stagnated in 2023, and many of the same challenges U.S. manufacturers faced are likely to persist in 2024. High interest rates continue to weigh on capex plans, the U.S. economy is unlikely to experience the same pace of growth, and global demand also appears to be soft. However, a continued influx of federal dollars should boost some industries, including semiconductors and clean energy.
Main Street businesses have benefitted from strong consumer spending over the last two years, outperforming expectations. However, small business owners are increasingly pessimistic about near-term sales revenue and concerns that consumers may be finally starting to pull back.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its most recent meeting, with rates at 5.25–5.5%. Inflation has fallen significantly over the last six months, and if economic growth weakens significantly in late 2023 and early 2024 as expected, Fed officials may feel pressure to begin cutting rates in the spring, particularly if inflation remains in the 3% range.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is released in conjunction with the Economic Outlook, tracks 12 equipment and software investment verticals. In addition, the Momentum Monitor Sector Matrix provides a customized data visualization of current values of each of the 12 verticals based on recent momentum and historical strength. This month four verticals are expanding, none are peaking, five are recovering, and three are weakening. Over the next three to six months the Foundation expects the following trends to materialize on a year-over-year basis:

Agriculture machinery investment growth should return to positive territory.
Construction machinery investment growth is likely to remain positive.
Materials handling equipment investment growth should improve.
All other industrial equipment investment growth will likely weaken.
Medical equipment investment growth will likely remain subdued, though recent movement in the Index is encouraging.
Mining and oilfield machinery investment growth will likely remain weak or negative.
Aircraft investment growth will likely remain positive.
Ships and boats investment growth will likely strengthen.
Railroad equipment investment growth will likely remain modestly positive.
Trucks investment growth may slow but should remain positive.
Computers investment growth should improve.
Software investment growth will likely remain solid.

The Foundation produces the Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report in partnership with economic and public policy consulting firm Keybridge Research. The annual economic forecast provides the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, credit market conditions, and key economic indicators. The report will be updated quarterly throughout 2024.

Download the full report at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/u-s-economic-outlook/.

Download the Momentum Monitor at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/momentum-monitor/.

All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation Elects Officers, Welcomes New Trustees, and Presents Research Award During Annual Meeting

Washington, DC, December 5, 2023 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation) announced the 2024 officers of its Board of Trustees (Board). Board Officers serving are Zack Marsh, CLFP, SVP, Accounting and Analysis, AP Equipment Financing as Chair; Miles Herman, CEO, LEAF Commercial Capital, Inc. as Vice Chair; Peter Bullen, Group Head, Key Equipment Finance as Secretary/Treasurer; and Leigh Lytle, President and CEO, Equipment Leasing and Finance Association (ELFA) as President. Nancy Pistorio, CLFP, President, Madison Capital LLC is Immediate Past Chair. The officer elections were held during the Board‘s annual meeting.

New members appointed to the Foundation Board of Trustees include Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Isuzu Finance of America, Inc.; Jeffrey Dicosola, Sales Manager, Great American Insurance Group; Martin Klotzman, Director of Marketing and Operations, Ivory Consulting Corporation; and Brittany Ogden, Attorney, Partner, Quarles & Brady LLP.

“The Foundation’s 2024 Board brings a wealth of leadership and industry experience to their roles as Trustees,” said Zack Marsh. “We are privileged to have such talent, commitment and expertise serving the Foundation and its mission for the advancement of the equipment finance industry.”

Trustees continuing on the Board for 2024 are:

Andrew Blacklock, Vice President, Strategy and Business Operations, Cisco Systems Capital Corporation
Cindy Fleck, Senior Vice President and General Manager Equipment Finance, Channel
Valerie Gerard, Co-Chief Executive Officer, The Alta Group LLC
Shari Lipski, CLFP, Principal, ECS Financial Services, Inc.
Mark Loken, Vice President, Credit, Farm Credit Leasing
David Normandin, CLFP, President and CEO, Wintrust Specialty Finance
Ricardo E. Rios, CLFP, COO, Commercial Equipment Finance, Inc.
Nancy Robles, President, Eastern Funding LLC
William Tefft, SVP Equipment Management, Banc of California
Donna Yanuzzi, SVP Director, 1st Equipment Finance, Inc. (FNCB Bank)

Kelli Nienaber will continue to serve as Executive Director.

Steven R. LeBarron Award
Research Committee Chair Thomas Ware honored Valerie Gerard with the Steven R. LeBarron Award for Principled Research. A member of the Foundation Research Committee (FRC) and a Foundation Trustee since 2018, Gerard also serves on the Editorial Review Board for the Journal of Equipment Lease Financing (JELF) and the Nominating Committee. She is being recognized for her work on content development for the Foundation podcast, which is growing as a channel to share Foundation content, including hosting study researchers as guests to share their expertise and insights. Gerard will take the lead as Chair of the FRC in 2024. This award is presented annually in memory of Steven LeBarron to the FRC member who demonstrates the insight, fortitude, and dedication he exemplified.

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Steady in November

Washington, DC, November 16, 2023 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the November 2023 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1 trillion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 42.8, an increase from the October index of 40.1.

11When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Sean Duffy, CFO of Global Financial & Leasing Services, LLC, said, “The depth of geopolitical uncertainty, and our own domestic political uncertainty, will have a significant impact on how the economy and our industry fare over the next 6-12 months.”

November 2023 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 42.8, an increase from the October index of 40.1.

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, none of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 3.7% in October. 74.1% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, unchanged from the previous month. 25.9% believe business conditions will worsen, an increase from 22.2% in October.
None of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 3.7% in October. 74.1% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, a decrease from 77.8% the previous month. 25.9% believe demand will decline, an increase from 18.5% in October.
11.1% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 14.8% in October. 74.1% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, up from 70.4% last month. 14.8% expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
When asked, 14.8% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, unchanged from October. 77.8% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 70.4% last month. 7.4% expect to hire fewer employees, down from 14.8% in October.
3.7% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” an increase from none the previous month. 81.5% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” down from 92.6% in October. 14.8% evaluate it as “poor,” up from 7.4% last month.
3.7% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, relatively unchanged from 3.9% in October. 44.4% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, a decrease from 57.7% last month. 51.9% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 38.5% the previous month.
In November, 14.8% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, up from 11.1% the previous month. 70.4% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, down from 77.8% in October. 14.8% believe there will be a decrease in spending, an increase from 11.1% last month.

November 2023 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“As the equipment leasing and finance industry heads to the end of year there will continue to be demand for financing, and the organizations with liquidity will have solid new originations. Portfolios continue to perform in most sectors at strong historic rates. I think we are heading into a slowdown in 2024, and rates will fall during this slowdown, but for now there is opportunity.” David Normandin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Bank, Middle Ticket
“Customers seem to be getting accustomed to the current interest rate environment and the idea that rates may not be coming down for a while. This, combined with the continued draw-down of cash reserves, could lead to increased lease demand going forward, but we will need to keep a closer eye on repayment capacity.” Jason Lueders, President, Farm Credit Leasing

ABOUT THE MCI

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

Current business conditions
Expected product demand over the next four months
Access to capital over the next four months
Future employment conditions
Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
S. economic conditions over the next six months
Business development spending expectations
Open-ended question for comment

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Q4 2023 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot now available

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation has released the Q4 2023 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot, an indispensable information resource for industry participants. Designed for use in executive briefings and presentations, the presentation slide deck summarizes the current conditions and projections for the U.S. economy and equipment finance industry with clear, easy-to-digest charts and short narratives of key trends.

Among the range of details in the Q4 Snapshot:

The Foundation projects that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.3% annualized in 2023.
- The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.1% annualized rate in Q2, the fourth consecutive quarter of solid economic growth.
- Growth in Q2 was broad-based, fueled by consumer and government spending, and business investment.

Economic tailwinds for growth in 2023 include:
- The labor market, which remains a pillar of strength adding over 2.3 million jobs in 2023 as of September.
- Consumer spending, which remains a crucial driver of economic growth.
  - Retail sales growth was higher than expected over the summer with strong spending at e-tailers, sporting goods stores, and restaurants and bars, usually the first areas where consumers pull back.
  - Despite rising debt levels, consumers kept the U.S. economic engine turning during Q2 and Q3 2023.

Economic headwinds include:
- Consumer debt as growing concerns persist for deteriorating consumer financial health.
- A global economic slowdown with Eurozone countries facing headwinds and global inflation, falling prices in China raising concerns of a “deflationary trap,” and flagging global demand potentially reducing U.S. exports and business investment.
- Inflation, which eased significantly since last year, but is still above the Fed’s target.
- Oil price fluctuations posing a challenge as the Fed tries to control inflation.
- Labor strike activity, including the United Auto Workers strike, one of nine strikes in August involving more than 1,000 workers.

Equipment and software investment is expected to grow at a 3.0% pace in 2023.
- E&S investment growth was strong in Q2, but early indications suggest that investment may weaken in Q3 and Q4 as credit availability has continued to tighten.

New business volume growth reported in ELFA’s Monthly Leasing and Finance Index was up 2.8% year to date in August, a deceleration from August 2022 when year-to-date growth was 5.0%.
- After strong growth in early 2023, YTD new business volume growth softened in Q2 and Q3 in the face of interest rates and tightening lending standards.

Prepared by Keybridge Research and updated quarterly, the snapshot is available for free download at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/industry-snapshot/

Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

New Foundation Study Examines Future Supply Chain Impacts on Equipment Finance Industry

Washington, DC, October 24, 2023 – Supply chain pressures and material costs have improved across various equipment asset classes through 2023, but what does the future hold? A new study, “Future Supply Chain Impacts on the U.S. Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry,” released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation) presents a comprehensive examination of short and long-term forecasts for major equipment finance industry asset classes, and also identifies key macroeconomic changes that will occur over the next decade and beyond.

The study was commissioned by the Foundation and prepared by Zeihan on Geopolitics and Rinaldi Advisory Services. It utilizes a hybrid geopolitical model to help equipment finance professionals understand the significant future headwinds facing global supply chains. This study identified three major macroeconomic trends that the industry must adapt to:

China’s demographic collapse
Global baby boomer retirement
The end of the globalized trade order

Complementing the perspective on geopolitical conditions and risks are high-level, action-oriented suggestions and considerations for the equipment finance industry. They include a checklist of steps to identify and mitigate risk, and insights on used equipment values, labor shortages and equipment-as-a service.

“Geopolitics hasn’t been much of a consideration for the equipment finance industry until the last couple of years. However, this study makes it clear that it is now an ongoing issue for business planning, especially regarding forward-looking origination and valuation projections by equipment type,” said Tom Ware, Foundation Research Committee Chair. “The researchers provide objective, tangible forecasts of equipment supply chain issues that will arise, and visibility into the timing and likely locations of reshoring/onshoring of domestic manufacturing that are critical to equipment finance companies. Readers will be interested to learn why North America is likely to be a lone shining point in a global economy.”

Download the full report at https://bit.ly/ELFFSupplyChain.

All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.
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Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Foundation Enhances Academic Outreach With New Campus To Career Platform

New partnership formed with Arizona State University to develop equipment finance curriculum

Washington, DC, October 23, 2023–Building on the success of its academic outreach efforts, the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation) announces the launch of Campus to Career, its newly enhanced platform of NextGen talent development programs. Campus to Career more accurately reflects the objective of the Foundation’s academic resources, which are designed to reflect the need for the equipment finance industry to attract the future workforce and to be intentional about diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts in recruiting.

The Foundation also announces it is partnering with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University to develop a curriculum for a certificate of study in equipment finance. Working with the W.P. Carey Department of Finance, the first course focusing on credit analysis and equipment leasing is being offered to students for the spring 2024 semester. Over the next few years, the program will expand to a series of five courses incorporating the finance elective, lease accounting, and additional coursework in sales and marketing.

“So many of us are searching for talent to build our businesses to better serve our clients well into the future,” said Donna Yanuzzi, Director of Equipment Finance, 1^st Equipment Finance, Inc. (FNCB Bank) and Chair of the Foundation’s Academic Outreach Committee. “The Foundation team understands our needs and has dedicated a tremendous amount of effort developing the Campus to Career programs to help us find the best new talent.”

Campus to Career programs include:

Opportunities in Equipment Finance – Industry professionals are encouraged to deliver these ready-made academic presentations that feature career pathways and finance subject matter at local colleges and universities, or their alma mater. (formerly the Guest Lecture Program)
Internship Resources – All equipment finance industry firms with available internship positions can reach eligible student candidates by posting openings in the Campus to Career online listing.
Recruiting Resources – Learn from articles and information on best practices for industry recruiting from sources including the National Association for Colleges and Employers, the National Society for Experiential Education, and Northern Illinois University
Scholarships – The Foundation awards annual scholarships to students interested in potentially pursuing a career in the equipment finance industry.

“The success of the Foundation’s academic outreach to date, strong industry demand for student talent recruiting resources, and our groundbreaking curriculum development partnership with ASU clearly demonstrate the value of our expanded investment in the Campus to Career platform,” said Nancy Pistorio, Foundation Chair and President of Madison Capital LLC. “The Foundation continues to fulfill its forward-looking mission with programs that elevate the stature and sustainability of the equipment finance industry thanks to the support of our generous donors and volunteers.”

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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Lower in October

Washington, DC, October 19, 2023 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the October 2023 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1 trillion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 40.1, a decrease from the September index of 50.3.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Mark Bonanno, President and COO, North Mill Equipment Finance, said, “The macroeconomic environment remains challenging. The U.S. is facing the largest peacetime deficit ever. The likelihood of a government shutdown has increased due to U.S. political upheaval and the pending election cycle. Inflation remains significantly above Fed targets, and the possibility of interest rates going higher or remaining elevated for longer than expected is high, making a recession more likely than not.”

October 2023 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 40.1, a decrease from the September index of 50.3.

When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 3.7% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 10.3% in September. 74.1% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 75.9% the previous month. 22.2% believe business conditions will worsen, an increase from 13.8% in September.
3.7% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 10.3% in September. 77.8% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, a decrease from 79.3% the previous month. 18.5% believe demand will decline, an increase from 10.3% in September.
14.8% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 13.8% in September. 70.4% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, down from 72.4% last month. 14.8% expect “less” access to capital, up from 13.8% the previous month.
When asked, 14.8% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 20.7% in September. 70.4% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 72.4% last month. 14.8% expect to hire fewer employees, up from 6.9% in September.
None of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” unchanged from the previous month. 92.6% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” up from 89.7% in September. 7.4% evaluate it as “poor,” down from 10.3% last month.
3.9% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a decrease from 6.9% in September. 57.7% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, a decrease from 62.1% last month. 38.5% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 31% the previous month.
In October, 11.1% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 24.1% the previous month. 77.8% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, up from 69% in September. 11.1% believe there will be a decrease in spending, an increase from 6.9% last month.

October 2023 MCI-EFI Survey Comment from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“The equipment finance industry will continue to flex to find the opportunities that exist in our current market and will find solutions to the challenges in pockets of the industry. I am confident that we will continue to grow profitably through this time.” David Normandin, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Independent, Small Ticket
“While we have avoided recession in 2023, there are a number of dark clouds on the horizon that could tip the scale, including the cumulative effect of higher interest rates, higher oil prices, the resumption of student loan payments and the ongoing risk of a government shutdown. Some, but certainly not all, of our customers are wary about the future and seem to be a little more skeptical on capital spending.” Bruce J. Winter, President, FSG Capital, Inc.

“When the auto union strike is settled, the result is likely going to include an increase in wages and benefits for the workers. An increase in inflation will follow.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

ABOUT THE MCI

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

Current business conditions
Expected product demand over the next four months
Access to capital over the next four months
Future employment conditions
Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
S. economic conditions over the next six months
Business development spending expectations
Open-ended question for comment

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org