Uncategorized Archives - Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Dips Again in March

Washington, DC, March 20, 2025 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the March 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 58.1, down from the February index of 66.9, and the lowest index since July 2024. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and future expectations as reported by key executives from the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Donna Yanuzzi, EVP and Head of Equipment Finance, 1st Equipment Finance, Inc., said, “Weeding through the noise, the Trump administration appears to be pro-business and regulatory realistic. This combination should drive investment and growth. However, the concerns of tariffs may impact business growth in some fashion. Now, more than ever, strategic planning will be key in navigating the opportunities and risks ahead.”

March 2025 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 58.1, down from the February index of 66.9.

Business conditions – When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 28.6% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 53.6% in February. 53.6% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, up from 35.7% the previous month. 17.9% believe business conditions will worsen, up from 7% in February.
Capex demand – 1% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 46.4% in February. 42.9% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, down from 50% the previous month. 25% believe demand will decline, an increase from 3.6% in February.
Access to capital – 21.4% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 25% in February. 75% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, unchanged from the previous month. 3.6% expect “less” access to capital, up from none in February.
Employment – When asked, 32.1% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 35.7% in February. 67.9% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, down from 64.3% last month. None expect to hire fewer employees, unchanged from February.
U.S. economy – 3.6% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” 92.9% evaluate the economy as “fair,” and 3.6% evaluate it as “poor,” all unchanged from last month.
Economic outlook – 1% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, down from 48.2% in February. 39.3% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, down from 40.7% last month. 28.6% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 11.1% the previous month.
Business development spending – In March, 35.7% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 39.3% the previous month. 64.3% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, an increase from 60.7% in February. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.

March 2025 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Captive, Small Ticket
“If imported equipment becomes more expensive, businesses may turn to local suppliers, and with capital expenditures rising, finance and leasing could become more attractive.” Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Isuzu Finance of America, Inc.

Independent, Small Ticket
“We remain cautiously optimistic that the steady demand we are seeing will continue throughout the spring along with maintaining stable portfolio performance. The rapid pace and breadth of the changes by the new administration do cause us some concerns as to how those will affect consumer confidence and spending, labor markets, and overall GDP growth.” Daryn Lecy, CLFP, Chief Operating Officer, Oakmont Capital Services

“Keeping inflation down is very important for an economic recovery.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

Independent, Large Ticket
“It’s hard to form clear opinions right now, but I am optimistic about the resiliency of the economy overall.” Jonathan Albin, Chief Operating Officer, Nexseer Capital

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/. Details about the MCI, including who participates, how it’s designed, and the survey respondent demographics are also available at the link above.

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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization with a mission to advance the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector by producing data-forward research and market outlooks, as well as cultivating the next-generation workforce through Campus to Career programs, including curriculum development and collegiate scholarships. Founded in 1989 and 100% funded through charitable donations, the Foundation drives innovation and career development for the future of the industry. www.leasefoundation.org

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation Announces 8th Annual “Day of Giving” On March 13

Individuals and companies encouraged to give back to the equipment finance industry during 24-hour fundraising campaign

Washington, DC, March 6, 2025 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is designating Thursday, March 13, as a “Day of Giving” for everyone who has benefitted from the wide range of industry research, programs and resources the Foundation provides. With individual and corporate donations, the Foundation is looking to grow its donor family during this 24-hour fundraiser. All giving levels are welcome, and all donations are 100% tax-deductible.

This is the eighth annual Day of Giving, which is intended to remind people of the lasting impact they can make when they support the Foundation’s mission to advance the equipment finance industry forward.

The Day of Giving campaign supports the Foundation’s wide range of popular and new resources which are made possible entirely through individual and corporate donations, including:

Regular in-depth research like the Monthly Confidence Index, Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, and Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook.
Industry and topical studies, including the recently updated Equipment Finance Industry Horizon Report, which provides market sizing analysis for the $1 trillion equipment finance industry; Vertical Market Outlook Series reports, such as construction and trucking; and upcoming studies on the tax impact of 100% expensing phase out and an updated Specialized Apps, Software, and Information Services 2.0 report. All are available for free download at the online Research Library.
Campus to Career programs to attract new and diverse student talent to the industry:
- Scholarship program of ten $5,000 student scholarships
- Campus to Career presentations at colleges and universities
- University partnerships to build formalized equipment finance course curricula
- Connecting students and employers through internship listings and resources.

“This Day of Giving offers a meaningful opportunity to recognize the positive impact the Foundation has on our professional journeys and the future of our industry,” said Shari Lipski, CLFP, Principal at ECS Financial Services, Inc., Foundation Trustee, and National Development Committee Chair. “Your 100% tax-deductible donation is vital in advancing critical research, cultivating the next generation of industry leaders, and fostering the innovations and best practices that will continue to drive us forward.”

Donations can be made online, or by check to the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, 1625 Eye St NW, Suite 850, Washington, DC 20006.

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Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Eases in February After Three Consecutive Increases

Washington, DC, February 20, 2025 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the February 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market eased to 66.9, down from the January index of 69.6, after three consecutive months of increases. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and future expectations as reported by key executives from the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent David Normandin, CLFP, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance, said, “I am optimistic about the opportunities that may happen in 2025. Business confidence is strong, which will lead to additional investment into capital equipment. Additionally, while inflation is still higher than desired, it is a marked improvement from the recent past. With that said, delinquency and credit quality remain a challenge with bankruptcy rates continuing to rise and stress in consumer auto and credit card debt. 2025 may not be an easy year, but there will be opportunities to leverage if you are nimble and creative in solving challenges.”

February 2025 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 66.9, down from the January index of 69.6.

Business conditions – When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 53.6% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 57.1% in January. 35.7% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 38.1% the previous month. 10.7% believe business conditions will worsen, up from 8% in January.
Capex demand – 4% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 47.6% in January. 50% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, up from 47.6% the previous month. 3.6% believe demand will decline, a decrease from 4.8% in January.
Access to capital – 25% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 28.6% in January. 75% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, up from 71.4% the previous month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from January.
Employment – When asked, 35.7% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, a decrease from 47.6% in January. 64.3% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 52.4% last month. None expect to hire fewer employees, unchanged from January.
U.S. economy – 3.6% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” down from 9.5% the previous month. 92.9% evaluate the economy as “fair,” up from 85.7% in January. 3.6% evaluate it as “poor,” down from 4.8% last month.
Economic outlook – 2% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, down from 52.4% in January. 40.7% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, down from 47.6% last month. 11.1% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from none the previous month.
Business development spending – In February, 39.3% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, up from 38.1% the previous month. 60.7% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, a decrease from 61.9% in January. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.

February 2025 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket

“The Trump Administration has taken a hard line on economic relations. Assuming this will bolster negotiations, hope is building that the result will be a stronger U.S. economy.” Charles Jones, Senior Vice President, 1^st Equipment Finance, Inc.

Independent, Small Ticket

“With this administration, we expect a gradual improvement in business conditions into the foreseeable future. We also expect the performance of portfolios to gradually improve as well.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Up Third Consecutive Month in January

Washington, DC, January 16, 2025 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the January 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market increased for the third consecutive month to 69.6, up from the December index of 68.8 and the highest level since July 2021. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future, as reported by key executives from the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent William C. Perry III, Executive Vice President & Group Head, Regions Equipment Finance Corporation, said, “Encouraging data points clearly demonstrate the resiliency and critical role of equipment finance to the U.S. economy. As you consider further anticipated rate cut(s), capacity reshoring and the potential for 100% bonus depreciation being reinstated, we expect companies to increase investments in new technology, resources, and production equipment. This should equate to increased demand for structured leasing and equipment finance products as companies look to maximize associated tax benefits. Having performed well over the past 24 months, the equipment finance sector is justly poised for growth as we head into 2025 and beyond.”

January 2025 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 69.6, up from the December index of 68.8.

Business conditions – When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 57.1% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, unchanged from December. 38.1% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, up from 32.1% the previous month. 4.8% believe business conditions will worsen, down from 7% in December.
Capex demand – 6% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 53.6% in December. 47.6% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, up from 42.9% the previous month. 4.8% believe demand will decline, an increase from 3.6% in December.
Access to capital – 28.6% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, 71.4% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, and none expect “less” access to capital, all unchanged from the previous month.
Employment – When asked, 47.6% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, unchanged from December. 52.4% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, up from 42.9% last month. None expect to hire fewer employees, down from 10.7% in December.
U.S. economy – 9.5% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from 7.1% the previous month. 85.7% evaluate the economy as “fair,” down from 89.3% in December. 4.8% evaluate it as “poor,” up from 3.6% last month.
Economic outlook – 4% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, down from 53.6% in December. 47.6% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, up from 35.7% last month. None believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, a decrease from 10.7% the previous month.
Business development spending – In January, 38.1% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 46.4% the previous month. 61.9% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, an increase from 50% in December. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, down from 3.6% last month.

January 2025 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“I think the incoming President and administration will promote a business-friendly atmosphere. This will hopefully boost confidence leading to business expansion and growth.” Charles Jones, Senior Vice President, 1^st Equipment Finance, Inc.

“The equipment leasing and finance industry experienced a solid 2024 and is footed for a better 2025. Growth is back in the forecast with investments in many core industries projected in 2025. The opportunity is great and the obstacles are many, including continued normalization of portfolio performance as well as material increase in bankruptcy filings again in 2024 vs. 2023. Swap rates continue to be volatile and there is pressure in many SME organizations to maintain profitability. Our role in helping our customers acquire the equipment they need is real, and I am confident that we are up to the challenge of delivering creative and flexible solutions to meet our customers’ needs. David Normandin, CLFP, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Independent, Middle Ticket
“SLR Equipment Finance continues to evaluate opportunities to expand business in both its vendor, direct, and capital market spaces. Expected improvements in inflation, supply chain issue resolutions, expansion in energy sectors, and general trade improvements likely to occur over the course of 2025 should positively benefit capex spending, and therefore, the need to provide financing, especially by sources such as SLR Equipment Finance, which provides private capital and flexible options to its customers.” Shari Williams, Chief Risk Officer, SLR Equipment Finance

Independent, Large Ticket
“Equipment financing is an integral component of the middle market capital stack at this point as clients need access to cost-effective capital, and capex remains stable to strong. That said, there remain potential risks in the economy and geopolitical environment and things can turn suddenly.” Jonathan Albin, Chief Operating Officer, Nexseer Capital

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Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation Accepting Applications for 10 $5,000 Scholarships to Promote Careers in the Equipment Finance Industry

Washington, DC, January 13, 2025—The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is accepting applications for its scholarship program for the 2025-2026 academic year. Up to 10 scholarships of $5,000 each will be awarded to full-time undergraduate or full-time graduate students interested in pursuing a career in the equipment finance industry who are majoring in business, economics, finance, or a related discipline.

Since the launch of the Foundation’s scholarship program six years ago, 29 students have received scholarships. The program was developed to support the Foundation’s mission to attract new and diverse talent to the industry.

To be eligible for consideration for a scholarship in 2025, candidates must submit their applications online by May 2, 2025, and must:

Be a full-time undergraduate student, or full-time graduate student, as defined by the accredited educational institution they are attending;
Have declared his/her/their major course work to be in the field of business, economics, finance, or a related discipline; and
Have a minimum cumulative grade point average of 3.0.
Students with recommendations from professionals in the equipment finance industry will be given preference.

To learn more or to apply for a scholarship, visit https://www.leasefoundation.org/academic-programs/home/scholarship-program/.

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot Now Available

The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation has released the 2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance Industry Snapshot, an indispensable information resource for industry participants. Designed for use in executive briefings and presentations, the slide deck summarizes the current conditions and projections for the U.S. economy and equipment finance industry with clear, easy-to-digest charts and short narratives of key trends.

Among the wide range of details in the 2025 Snapshot:

The Foundation projects that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.7%.
- The U.S. economy expanded at 2.8% (SAAR) in Q3 2024, a slight decrease from 3.0% growth in Q2.
- Three key factors boosted the U.S. economy in 2024 and set the stage for continued economic growth in 2025: 1) a strong labor market, 2) rising household wealth, and 3) remarkably resilient consumer spending.
Economic tailwinds:
- Q3 growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, supported by a boost in government spending and business investment.
Economic headwinds include negative growth in private inventories, residential investment, and net exports.
Equipment and software investment is expected to grow at a 4.7% annualized pace in 2025.
- Equipment and software investment expanded 7.5% in Q3 (annualized) after growing 7.0% in Q2. Growth was positive in seven of 12 tracked verticals.
- Moderate growth is expected during the first half of the year with upside potential later in the year if inflation cools further toward 2%, and the Fed responds by further lowering interest rates.
By equipment type,
- Six of 12 verticals are exhibiting recent momentum that is stronger than historical norms, including computers and mining & oilfield machinery.
- Investment growth in other industrial equipment and trucks appears set to shrink in the coming six months.
New business volume growth reported in ELFA’s CapEx Finance Index (formerly the MLFI-25) in October was up 11.9% Y/Y, 5.1% M/M, and up 3.7% YTD, outpacing the rate of inflation.
Special Topic – Trump’s Second Term – An overview of three key policy areas in the new administration:

- Tariffs – As an economic strategy, economic consequences and retaliation, and uncertainty and opportunities.
- Taxes – The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, impact of new legislation on investment, and potential long-term implications.
- Industrial Policy – Policy priorities are likely to shift regarding renewable energy, domestic manufacturing, and infrastructure development projects, with the effect on equipment demand unclear.

Prepared by Keybridge Research, the snapshot is available for free download at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/industry-snapshot/

Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence in December Reaches New Three-Year High

Washington, DC, December 19, 2024 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the December 2024 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 68.8, surpassing the November index of 67.5, the previous three-year high. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent David Normandin, CLFP, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance, said, “Over the last year, the equipment finance industry has witnessed changes in liquidity, volatile swap rates, higher delinquency, and credit charges returning to a more normalized state. Through this, we have adapted and created better solutions to meet our customers’ needs. Now that the election is over and the Fed has begun cutting rates, I think there is more surety for businesses to confidently invest in their business. This will create good opportunities for the equipment finance industry in 2025.”

December 2024 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 68.8, up from the November index of 67.5.

Business conditions – When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 57.1% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, an increase from 43.3% in November. 32.1% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 50% the previous month. 10.7% believe business conditions will worsen, up from 7% in November.
Capex demand – 6% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 48.3% in November. 42.9% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, down from 44.8% the previous month. 3.6% believe demand will decline, a decrease from 6.9% in November.
Access to capital – 28.6% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 37.9% in November. 71.4% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, up from 62.1% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
Employment – When asked, 46.4% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, an increase from 44.8% in November. 42.9% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, down from 48.3% last month. 10.7% expect to hire fewer employees, up from 6.9% in November.
U.S. economy – 7.1% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from none the previous month. 89.3% evaluate the economy as “fair,” down from 96.7% in November. 3.6% evaluate it as “poor,” relatively unchanged from 3.3% last month.
Economic outlook – 6% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, down from 60% in November. 35.7% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, down from 36.7% last month. 10.7% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 3.3% the previous month.
Business development spending – In December, 46.4% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, up from 36.7% the previous month. 50% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, a decrease from 56.7% in November. 3.6% believe there will be a decrease in spending, down from 6.7% last month.

December 2024 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“Political changes at the federal level are encouraging to small business. Changes to green energy policy and federal oversight [Section 1071] could lead to a more robust environment.” Charles Jones, Senior Vice President, 1^st Equipment Finance, Inc.

Captive, Small Ticket
“Economic resilience and growth, the continued adoption of technology and digitization, and government infrastructure initiatives are increasing demand. The new administration may slow the shift toward sustainability and the equipment requirements needed.” Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Isuzu Finance of America, Inc.

Independent, Small Ticket
“The president-elect is expected to make a number of changes that will positively impact the U.S. economy.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and student talent development programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the advancement of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

U.S. Economy Positioned for Growth as 2025 Economic Outlook Forecasts 4.7% Expansion in Equipment & Software Investment, 2.7% Increase in GDP

Washington, DC, December 18, 2024 – After a strong performance in 2024, the U.S. economy will continue to benefit from a solid labor market, rising household wealth, and resilient consumer spending next year according to the 2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook. Real equipment and software investment growth is projected to be 4.7% in 2025, roughly on par with growth in 2024 with stronger investment activity expected in the latter half of the year. The report, which was prepared by Keybridge and released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, also forecasts real GDP growth of 2.7% next year, similar to the estimated 2.8% growth observed in 2024.

The Foundation’s report is focused on the $1.3 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, and highlights key trends in equipment investment, placing them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.

Leigh Lytle, President of the Foundation, and President & CEO of the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association, said, “The economy blew past expectations in 2024 as strong consumer spending and business investment pushed growth above trends experienced prior to the pandemic. Data on new loan volume from ELFA’s CapEx Finance Index and executive sentiment in the Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index suggest that momentum carried through to the fourth quarter, and lines the economy up for a strong 2025. That said, the potential for a trade war and persistent inflation could cause the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate decreases, which would weigh on the U.S. economy. Time will tell how all of these things shake out, but if we’ve learned one thing from 2024, it’s to never bet against the strength of American consumers or the resiliency of American business.”

Highlights from the 2025 Outlook include:

Equipment and software investment expanded 7.5% (annualized) in Q3, the second consecutive quarter of solid growth. Aircraft investment, which has more than doubled since Q1, was again primarily responsible for the strong performance. Growth in computers and communication equipment has also been strong, while construction machinery investment contracted again.
The U.S. economy continues to outperform its international peers. Despite the unprecedented downturn in early 2020, the U.S. economy is roughly 11% larger in inflation-adjusted terms than it was at the end of 2019, faring far better than other major economies. Businesses are more optimistic about their prospects in 2025, in part due to the prospects of lower taxes and less regulation under the incoming Trump administration and a Republican-controlled Congress. However, uncertainty remains regarding potential tariffs, tax cuts for manufacturers, and changes to clean energy funding.
Looking to Fed policy, the December employment report confirmed that the labor market remains generally healthy, with 227K jobs created in November and upward revisions to the previous two months’ data. These data align with Fed Chair Jay Powell’s description of recent economic performance as “remarkably good” and “not sending any signals [for] the need to be in a hurry to lower rates.” Nonetheless, markets overwhelmingly predict another rate cut at the Fed’s December 18^th In 2025, FOMC members will closely monitor upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is released in conjunction with the Economic Outlook, tracks 12 equipment and software investment verticals. In addition, the Momentum Monitor Sector Matrix provides a customized data visualization of current values of each of the 12 verticals based on recent momentum and historical strength. This month two verticals are expanding, two are peaking, four are recovering, and four are weakening. Over the next three to six months the Foundation expects the following trends to materialize on a year-over-year basis:

Agriculture machinery investment growth is likely to weaken further.
Construction machinery investment growth is expected to remain weak.
Materials handling equipment investment growth will remain positive and could strengthen.
All other industrial equipment investment growth will remain weak.
Medical equipment investment growth should stay positive.
Mining and oilfield machinery investment growth should improve.
Aircraft investment growth may have peaked and is likely to decline.
Ships and boats investment growth is expected to remain in contractionary territory.
Railroad equipment investment growth may weaken but should remain positive.
Trucks investment growth will be weak or negative.
Computers investment growth should remain strong.
Software investment growth will remain positive, but this month’s sizable momentum decline is worth monitoring in the months ahead.

The Foundation produces the Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report in partnership with economic and public policy consulting firm Keybridge Research. The annual economic forecast provides the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, credit market conditions, and key economic indicators. The report will be updated quarterly throughout 2025.

Download the full report at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/u-s-economic-outlook/.

Download the Momentum Monitor at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/momentum-monitor/.

All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

New Foundation Report Reveals Innovations, Challenges, and Opportunities in the Construction Industry

Washington, DC, December 12, 2024 – An increasingly complex environment of continuous change and multiple challenges contributes to the mixed outlook for the U.S. construction industry. In 2024, factories, bridges, and roads are expected to be the winning sectors, while warehouse and office construction will be challenged, according to a new study, “Vertical Market Outlook Series: Construction,” released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation).

The study provides an overview of the U.S. construction industry addressing such topics as macroeconomic factors, technological innovations, and other developments that will impact the industry going forward. It is the 11^th release of the Foundation’s forward-looking Vertical Market Outlook Series designed to help readers recognize and understand opportunities and challenges that may affect their businesses.

“The construction industry is consistently among the top end-users of equipment finance, and construction equipment a top-financed asset category, so this study should be of interest to a wide swath of our industry,” said Will Tefft Foundation Research Committee Member and Equipment Manager – EverBank Corporate Asset Finance “Equipment finance professionals will find the broad range of topics examined insightful for use in their strategic planning, and as a guide to the trends and issues to monitor to benefit their customers.”

The report was commissioned by the Foundation and prepared by global advertising, technology, and data company Big Village, which also produced the previous studies in the Vertical Market Outlook Series. The new study presents data and research from a variety of sources, and examines a range of issues, including:

- Government infrastructure investments through legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA)
- Economic factors such as high interest rates and inflationary pressures that can increase equipment, material, and labor prices
- Labor shortages/rising labor costs
- Pressure from both regulations and customers to implement decarbonization and environmentally-friendly practices
- Tighter lending standards, lower risk tolerance by lenders, and increased financing costs
- Options for acquiring equipment
- High levels of construction bankruptcies and loan delinquencies
- M&A activity with a trend toward private equity firms purchasing construction and construction-related companies
- Investment in technologies including, AI & big data innovations, automation/digitization/internet of things (IoT)/augmented reality, building information modeling, cloud-based technology, additive manufacturing/3D printing, drones/aerial imaging, and new battery technology.

Download the full report at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/vertical-outlook/.

All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

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Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Reaches Three-Year High

Washington, DC, November 21, 2024 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the November 2024 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 67.5, up from the October index of 61.8, and the highest level since August 2021. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $1.3 trillion equipment finance sector. Approximately half of the survey responses were submitted prior to the elections and half were submitted after.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Charles Jones, Senior Vice President, 1^st Equipment Finance, Inc., said, “Businesses still need equipment. Political uncertainty has had an impact and should resolve itself. With the election behind us, businesses will need to continue to operate and look to grow. Calmer heads seem to be prevailing and the industry is coming back. Delinquency has hopefully leveled, and lenders are licking their wounds and looking forward.”

November 2024 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 67.5, up from the October index of 61.8

Business conditions – When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 43.3% of the executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, an increase from 37.9% in October. 50% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 51.7% the previous month. 6.7% believe business conditions will worsen, down from 3% in October.
Capex demand – 48.3% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 44.8% in October. 44.8% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, up from 41.4% the previous month. 6.9% believe demand will decline, a decrease from 13.8% in October.
Access to capital – 37.9% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 27.6% in October. 62.1% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, down from 72.4% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
Employment – When asked, 44.8% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, an increase from 24.1% in October. 48.3% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, down from 65.5% last month. 6.9% expect to hire fewer employees, down from 10.3% in October.
U.S. economy – None of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” down from 6.9% the previous month. 96.7% evaluate the economy as “fair,” up from 93.1% in October. 3.3% evaluate it as “poor,” an increase from none last month.
Economic outlook – 60% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, up from 37.9% in October. 36.7% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, down from 51.7% last month. 3.3% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, a decrease from 10.3% the previous month.
Business development spending – In November, 36.7% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, up from 34.5% the previous month. 56.7% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, an increase from 55.2% in October. 6.7% believe there will be a decrease in spending, down from 10.3% last month.

November 2024 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Independent, Small Ticket
“I’m still concerned about the state of the consumer and the U.S. from a debt load perspective, but more optimistic on growth after the U.S. election cycle.” Mark Bonanno, President and COO, North Mill Equipment Finance

“The election is over. Looking forward, Trump’s policies will improve the economy and begin reducing government over-regulation.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

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Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org