Agricultural Machinery
Investment in Agricultural Machinery decreased 15% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is essentially flat (-0.2%) on a year-over-year basis. The Agriculture Momentum Index ticked down from 111.4 to 108.8 in September. In July, tobacco exports fell 59% M/M, while precipitation in the western United States was up annually. The Index’s current position and previous movement suggests that annual growth in agriculture machinery investment should improve over the next two quarters.
Construction Machinery
Investment in Construction Machinery ticked down 4.2% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is down -1.0% from its year-ago level. The Construction Momentum Index increased from 94.4 to 97.2 in September. In July, spending on construction for public transportation increased 6.2% Y/Y, while new privately owned housing starts weakened 6.8% M/M. Overall, the Index continues to point to a contraction in annual investment growth in construction machinery over the next two quarters.
Materials Handling Equipment
Investment in Materials Handling Equipment decreased 4.5% (annualized) in Q2 2024 but is 1.6% above year-ago levels. The Materials Handling Momentum Index held steady at 85.0 in September. Manufacturing payrolls ticked down slightly in August, while prices for material handling equipment rose 0.4% M/M in June. Overall, the Index’s recent movement suggests that annual investment growth in materials handling equipment will remain weak over the next six months.
Other Industrial Equipment
Investment in All Other Industrial Equipment slipped 3.9% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is essentially flat compared to year-ago levels (-0.1%). The Other Industrial Equipment Momentum Index held steady at 93.4 in September. In July, the industrial production price index was down 0.6%, while the Federal Reserve Nominal Advanced Foreign Economies Index ticked down 2.4% in August. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that annual investment growth in other industrial equipment may improve modestly over the next six months.
Medical Equipment
Investment in Medical Equipment decreased 2.7% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is slightly up (+0.2) on a Y/Y basis. The Medical Equipment Momentum Index increased from 96.2 to 97.0 in September. In July, the CPI for physicians’ services was up 0.7% Y/Y, while Medtronic’s market capitalization rose 10.3% in August. Overall, despite this month’s increase, the Index’s downward trajectory in recent months points to soft or negative annual growth in medical equipment investment over the next six months.
Mining & Oilfield Machinery
Investment in Mining & Oilfield Machinery increased 8.4% (annualized) in Q2 2024 but remains 4.9% below year-ago levels. The Mining & Oilfield Machinery Momentum Index increased from 90.8 to 93.3 in September. New orders for mining, oil & gas field machinery rose 10.5% Y/Y in July, while coal production improved 3.2% M/M. Overall, the Index continues to point to weak or negative annual growth in mining & oilfield machinery investment over the next six months, but recent movement in the Index is encouraging.
Aircraft
Investment in Aircraft jumped 537% (annualized) rate in Q2 2024 and is up 11% on an annual basis. The Aircraft Momentum Index increased from 106.6 to 108.3 in September. The ISM New Orders Index was up 1.1% in August, while industrial production of aerospace equipment was up 0.4% in July. Overall, recent movement in the Index suggests that annual growth in aircraft investment should continue to improve over the next two quarters.
Ships & Boats
Investment in Ships & Boats fell at a 17% annualized rate in Q2 2024 and is 21% below its year-ago level. The Ships & Boats Momentum Index jumped from 101.6 to 108.1 in September. Industrial production of ships & boats strengthened 2.1% Y/Y in July, while traffic at the Port of Long Beach improved 4.7% M/M. Overall, the Index’s current position suggests that annual growth in ships & boats investment has bottomed out and should improve over the next six months.
Railroad Equipment
Investment in Railroad Equipment decreased 70% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is down 9.4% year-over-year. The Railroad Equipment Momentum Index decreased from 96.1 to 93.7 in September. In August, rail carloads of farm & food products (excluding grain) weakened 22% M/M, while capacity utilization for manufacturing fell 4.9% M/M in July. Overall, the Index points to sluggish or negative growth in annual railroad equipment investment growth over the next six months.
Trucks
IInvestment in Trucks increased 15% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is 2.7% below year-ago levels. The Trucks Momentum Index decreased from 103.2 in August to 100.0 in September. Industrial production for truck assembly decreased 14% M/M in July, but capacity utilization for furniture and related products manufacturing improved 0.9% M/M. Overall, the Index’s improved readings in recent months suggest that annual investment growth in trucks should strengthen over the next six months.
Computers
Investment in Computers increased 21% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is up 15% on a year-over-year basis. The Computers Momentum Index climbed from 101.7 to 104.2 in September. In July, the Consumer Price Index for computer software and accessories decreased 0.4% Y/Y, while the ISM supplier deliveries index increased 4.2% in August. Overall, the Index’s current position and recent movement point to continued strong annual investment growth in computers over the next six months.
Software
Investment in Software rose 1.3% (annualized) in Q2 2024 and is up 7.6% from a year prior. The Software Momentum Index held steady at 93.0 in September. The ISM New Orders index increased 1.1% M/M in August, while the unemployment rate ticked down. Overall, the Index continues to indicate solid annual growth in software investment over the next two quarters.
