Foundation-Keybridge Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor consists of indices for 12 equipment and software investment verticals. These indices are designed to identify turning points in their respective investment cycles with a 3 to 6 month lead time for the following verticals:

Vertical Markets

Business leaders require actionable forward-looking intelligence to make strategic decisions. The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor consists of indices for 12 equipment and software verticals . These indices identify key turning points in their respective investment cycles with a 3 to 6 months lead time. Equipment and software investment data comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (Nonresidential Private Fixed Investment, chained dollars) and is publicly available on BEA's website on a quarterly basis. The underlying Momentum Monitor data comes from other publicly available sources (published monthly), including BEA and the Census Bureau, and is used to calculate the Momentum Monitor indices.

Agricultural Machinery

Investment in Agricultural Machinery declined 15% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is down 13% from one year ago. The Agriculture Momentum Index dipped from 104.0 in May (revised) to 103.8 in June. Agricultural Machinery Industrial Production dropped 3.0% in April while the Federal Funds Rate rose sharply in May. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that agriculture machinery investment growth will likely remain weak over the next six months.

Construction Machinery

Investment in Construction Machinery surged 27% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is 15% above its year-ago level. The Construction Momentum Index was unchanged in June from 97.2 (revised) in May. Shipments of Construction Machinery rose 4.7% in April while the Consumer Sentiment Index fell 8.8% in May. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that construction machinery investment growth is unlikely to improve over the next two quarters.

Materials Handling Equipment

Investment in Materials Handling Equipment rose 7.3% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and was 1.3% above year-ago levels. The Materials Handling Momentum Index edged down from 100.7 in May (revised) to 100.0 in June. Export Prices of Materials Handling Equipment increased 0.6% and Inventories of Durable Goods rose 1.0% in April. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that materials handling investment growth may accelerate over the coming six months.

Other Industrial Equipment

Investment in All Other Industrial Equipment expanded 16% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and rose 25% Y/Y. The Other Industrial Equipment Momentum Index declined from 112.8 in May (revised) to 109.8 in June. Manufacturing Industrial Production rose 0.8% in April and the Chicago Business Barometer Index ticked up 6.9% in May. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that other industrial equipment investment growth will remain elevated over the coming two quarters.

Medical Equipment

IInvestment in Medical Equipment increased 8.4% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is up 9.4% year-over-year. The Medical Equipment Momentum Index inched up from 105.5 in May (revised) to 106.3 in June. Medical & Hospital Equipment Export Prices increased 1.2% and the NFIB Small Business Survey Borrowing Sub-Index rose 4.0% in April. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that medical equipment investment growth may accelerate over the next six months.

Mining & Oilfield Machinery

Investment in Mining & Oilfield Machinery rose 8.1% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is 7.2% above year-ago levels. The Mining & Oilfield Machinery Momentum Index ticked up from 100.8 in May to 101.5 in June. The Brent Spot Price rose 15.8% and Mining & Logging Employment rose 0.1% in May. The current position and recent movement of the Index suggest that mining & oilfield machinery investment growth will likely remain healthy over the coming two quarters.

Aircraft

Investment in Aircraft plunged at a -30% (annualized) rate in Q1 2022 and is 12% below year-ago levels. The Aircraft Momentum Index rose from 96.9 from May (revised) to 101.2 in June. Civilian Aircraft Exports fell 4.3% in March while Southwest Airline’s Market Cap eased 1.8% in May. Overall, the Index’s position indicates that aircraft investment growth is unlikely to improve over the coming two quarters.

Ships & Boats

Investment in Ships & Boats rose at an annualized rate of 39% in Q1 2022 and is 18% above its year-ago level. The Ships & Boats Momentum Index rose from 113.3 in May (revised) to 115.1 in June. Industrial Production increased 1.1% and Grain and Oil Seed Milling shipments increased 1.5% in April. Overall, the Index’s position suggests that ships & boats investment growth could accelerate over the coming six months.

Railroad Equipment

Investment in Railroad Equipment increased 2.8% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is up 11% year-over-year. The Railroad Equipment Momentum Index rose from 94.6 in May (revised) to 97.3 in June. Railroad Rolling Stock Industrial Production increased 3.8% and Hourly Earnings of Production and Supervisory Employees increased 5.0% in April. Overall, the current position of the Index suggests that railroad equipment investment growth will likely remain in positive territory over the coming six months.

Trucks

Investment in Trucks fell 8.9% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is down 10% from year-ago levels. The Trucks Momentum Index rose from 105.8 in May (revised) to 110.0 in June. Coal Production increased 1.0% in April and Motor Vehicles and Parts Industrial Production rose 0.8% in May. Overall, the position and recent movement of the Index indicate that trucks investment growth may accelerate in the coming two quarters.

Computers

Investment in Computers increased 42% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is up 6.1% year-over-year. The Computers Momentum Index increased from 109.1 in May to 111.6 in June. Total Revolving Debt increased 2.9% in March and Shipments of Computers & Electronic Products rose 5.9% in April. Overall, the Index’s recent movement suggests that computers investment growth may pick up over the coming six months.

Software

Investment in Software rose 22% (annualized) in Q1 2022 and is up 13% from a year prior. The Software Momentum Index eased from 100.5 in May to 95.8 in June. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index fell 5.8% in May and the Software Publishers Price Index fell 0.4% in April. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that software investment growth may slow over the coming two quarters.