Agricultural Machinery
Investment in Agricultural Machinery improved 10% (annualized) in Q3 2023 but was down 19% compared to a year ago. The Agriculture Momentum Index increased from 99.0 in October to 102.0 in November. In September, Shipments of Farm Machinery and Equipment improved 2.0%, while Industrial Production for Agricultural Machinery fell 3.0%. Based on the index’s current position and recent movement, annual growth in agriculture machinery investment should continue to improve over the next six months.
Construction Machinery
Investment in Construction Machinery fell 12% (annualized) in Q3 2023 but was 8.4% above its year-ago level. The Construction Momentum Index increased from 90.8 in October to 92.7 in November, its fourth consecutive monthly gain. Construction Prices for Single Family Homes improved in September by 1.6%, while the Commercial Property Price Index weakened 3.3%. Overall, the Index indicates that investment growth in construction machinery should remain positive and may improve over the next two quarters.
Materials Handling Equipment
Investment in Materials Handling Equipment fell 5.4% (annualized) in Q3 2023 and was 3.0% below year-ago levels. The Materials Handling Momentum Index increased from 84.1 in October to 87.6 in November. In September, Durable Manufacturing Industrial Production expanded 0.4%, while the NFIB Small Business Survey Planned Capital Expenditure Sub-Index improved 1.8%. Overall, the Index suggests that materials handling equipment investment growth will likely remain subdued over the next six months.
Other Industrial Equipment
Investment in All Other Industrial Equipment increased at a 1.3% (annualized) rate in Q3 2023 and was up 0.1% Y/Y. The Other Industrial Equipment Momentum Index held steady at 81.2 in November. In September, the Nominal Emerging Marketing Economies Index worsened 1.5%, while Unfilled Orders of Industrial Machinery fell 1.6%. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that other industrial equipment investment growth will likely turn negative over the next six months.
Medical Equipment
Investment in Medical Equipment rose 3.5% (annualized) in Q3 2023 and was down 3.0% year-over-year. The Medical Equipment Momentum Index increased from 89.8 in October to 92.1 in November. In September, Urban Consumers Hospital Services improved 1.5% while the NFIB Small Business Survey Borrowing Sub-Index grew 10.7%. Overall, despite this month’s improvement, the Index continues to suggest that medical equipment investment growth will remain weak and may worsen over the next six months.
Mining & Oilfield Machinery
Investment in Mining & Oilfield Machinery fell 32% (annualized) in Q3 2023 and was 0.8% (revised) below year-ago levels. The Mining & Oilfield Machinery Momentum Index eased from 82.3 in October to 81.5 in November. Natural Gas Distribution Capacity Utilization ticked down 0.1% in September, while the S&P 500 Steel Index worsened 3.3%. Overall, the Index suggests that mining & oilfield machinery investment growth will remain subdued over the next six months.
Aircraft
Investment in Aircraft increased at a 24% (annualized) rate in Q3 2023 and was 33% (revised) above year-ago levels. The Aircraft Momentum Index increased from 103.5 in October to 106.0 in November. The S&P 500 Volatility Index improved 3.5% in September, while the Civilian Aircraft Exports decreased 1.4% in August. Overall, the index suggests that aircraft investment growth will remain positive and may improve over the coming two quarters.
Ships & Boats
Investment in Ships & Boats fell at an annualized rate of 19% in Q3 2023 and was 4.0% below its year-ago level. The Ships & Boats Momentum Index increased from 106.0 in October to 106.9 in November, its fifth increase in six months. In August, the Ship Repair PPI held steady, while the Consumer Confidence Index worsened 1.6% in October. Overall, the index continues to suggest that ships & boats investment growth will strengthen over the next six months.
Railroad Equipment
Investment in Railroad Equipment increased 9.1% (annualized) in Q3 2023 and was up 5.7% (revised) year-over-year. The Railroad Equipment Momentum Index held steady at 92.7 in November. In October, Rail Carloads of Petroleum Products increased 1.1% while Cruse Oil Exports held steady. Overall, the Index suggests that railroad equipment investment growth will remain modestly positive over the coming six months.
Trucks
Investment in Trucks decreased 8.2% (annualized) in Q3 2023 and was 11% above year-ago levels. The Trucks Momentum Index increased from 95.0 in October to 95.8 in November. In September, Motor Vehicle and Parts Industrial Production worsened 0.3%, while Coal Production improved by falling 4.3%. Overall, the Index indicates that annual investment growth in trucks should remain steady over the coming two quarters.
Computers
Investment in Computers decreased 11% (annualized) in Q3 2023 but was down 13% (revised) year-over-year. The Computers Momentum Index decreased from 109.1 in October to 106.6 in November. Total Revolving Debt rose in August by 1.2%, while Shipments of Computer & Electronic Products worsened 2.0% in September. Overall, the Index’s current position and recent movement suggest that computers investment growth should improve over the next six months.
Software
Investment in Software rose 5.0% (annualized) in Q3 2023 and was up 7.9% (revised) from a year prior. The Software Momentum Index increased from 96.2 in October to 97.0 in November. The Conference Board Consumer Installment Credit Outstanding worsened in August 0.3% M/M while NFIB’s Interest Rate Paid on Short Term Loans improved 8.9% in September. Overall, the Index’s position and recent movement suggest that software investment growth should remain positive and may improve over the coming two quarters.
