Q2 Update to the 2022 Economic Outlook Forecasts 4.2% Expansion in Equipment and Software Investment Growth and 2.8% GDP Growth

Washington, DC, April 14, 2022 – After its strongest growth in over a decade in 2021 and solid performance in Q1, equipment and software investment growth of 4.2 percent is forecast for 2022. Annual U.S. GDP growth for 2022 is forecast at 2.8 percent, according to the Q2 update to the 2022 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. The Foundation’s report, which is focused on the nearly $1 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, highlights key trends in equipment investment and places them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.

Nancy Pistorio, Foundation Chair and President of Madison Capital LLC, said, “At such a volatile time, this report provides valuable intelligence on the wide range of conditions that are impacting the U.S. economy and business investment. While it is encouraging that jobs are plentiful, the housing market is strong, and the pandemic is unlikely to be a major headwind unless a new variant emerges, the economic outlook is cloudier than it was at the start of the year. However, the equipment finance industry is still expected to expand at a moderate pace.”

Highlights from the Q2 update to the 2022 Outlook include:

  • After expanding a robust 13.1 percent in 2021, equipment and software investment is forecast to grow 4.2 percent (annualized) in 2022 as Russia’s war on Ukraine and ensuing uncertainty have muddled the outlook in several end-user markets.
  • Though an exceptionally strong labor market and robust housing growth has the U.S. economy on track for 2.8 percent growth this year, downside risks are mounting. Sanctions on Russia, economic turmoil, and supply chain shocks are all likely to contribute to sustained high inflation, and the risk of “stagflation” looms.
  • The U.S. manufacturing sector held steady in early 2022, but high energy prices and surging costs for other key inputs will likely weigh on activity later this year. Many of the supply chain issues last year appear set to return due to the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s response to COVID surges in major economic centers.
  • On Main Street, firms are generally holding their own as of early April, and an end to most pandemic operating restrictions has boosted demand. However, small businesses continue to contend with staff shortages and supply chain disruptions, which are both contributing to soaring inflation.
  • The Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish posture in Q1 as inflation rose. After raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in March, it is expected to raise rates another 100 bps by June, and 200 or more bps by the end of the year. Whether the Fed can reduce inflation without causing a sharp slowdown or recession is a huge unknown.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is released in conjunction with the Economic Outlook, tracks 12 equipment and software investment verticals. In addition, the Momentum Monitor Sector Matrix provides a customized data visualization of current values of each of the 12 verticals based on recent momentum and historical strength. Seven verticals are peaking/slowing, four are accelerating, and one is weakening. Over the next three to six months, year over year:

  • Agriculture machinery investment growth is unlikely to improve.
  • Construction machinery investment growth may continue to decelerate.
  • Materials handling equipment investment growth is unlikely to improve.
  • All other industrial equipment investment growth is decelerating, but should stay in positive territory.
  • Medical equipment investment growth may accelerate.
  • Mining and oilfield machinery investment growth will remain in positive territory.
  • Aircraft investment growth will likely remain weak.
  • Ships and boats investment growth will continue to slow.
  • Railroad equipment investment growth should remain elevated.
  • Trucks investment growth is unlikely to improve.
  • Computers investment growth may accelerate.
  • Software investment growth will continue to decelerate, but will likely remain in positive territory.

The full report of the Momentum Monitor is now available at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/momentum-monitor/.

The Foundation produces the Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report in partnership with economic and public policy consulting firm Keybridge Research. The annual economic forecast provides the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, credit market conditions, and key economic indicators. The Q2 report is the first update to the 2022 Economic Outlook and will be followed by two more quarterly updates before the publication of the 2023 Economic Outlook in December.

Download the full report at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/u-s-economic-outlook/. All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

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Media Contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

New Foundation Study Examines Funding, Securitization and Syndication in the Equipment Finance Industry

Washington, DC, April 12, 2022 – Today the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation) released a new study, Equipment Finance Funding, Securitization & Syndication: Best Practices for Today and Tomorrow, designed to analyze and report on COVID-19’s impact on the funding markets for the equipment leasing and finance industry. Prepared for the Foundation by The Alta Group, the study reveals that the equipment finance industry performed considerably better than expected through the pandemic due to factors including the SBA’s Paycheck Protection Program, unanticipated dividends from supply chain issues, and increased availability of capital.

The comprehensive study draws on a series of surveys and in-depth interviews conducted with senior industry executives of independent, bank, and captive finance companies; industry lenders; securitization issuers; and ratings agencies. Among the details provided in this wide-ranging study are:

  • How the pandemic’s impact differed from the Great Recession of 2008-2009;
  • What funding tools are available to industry participants;
  • How the funding, securitization, and syndications markets have performed since the pandemic;
  • What to expect from emerging funding opportunities; and
  • Which best practices industry peers utilized to optimize their funding models.

“Resiliency is a long-standing characteristic of the equipment finance industry, and the results of this study reinforce that reputation,” said Tom Ware, Foundation Research Committee Chair. “Readers will benefit from the experience of industry participants and insights about potential risks and opportunities to best position their organizations for the future.”

Two of the study authors, Gary LoMonaco and Patricia Voorhees of The Alta Group, will present highlights of the findings at ELFA’s National Funding Conference on April 13.

Download the full report at https://bit.ly/ELFFFunding. All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.
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Media contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

New Foundation Report Examines the U.S. Retail Sector and Opportunities for Equipment Finance Companies

Washington, DC, March 25, 2022 – As the $4.4 trillion U.S. retail sector deploys strategies such as increasing warehousing, repurposing existing stores, and incorporating new technologies, it is creating opportunities for leasing and other financing solutions, according to a new study, Vertical Market Outlook Series: Retail, released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation). The study focuses on the rapidly evolving retail landscape driven by consumer demand for flexibility in how, when and what they purchase. It is the sixth release of the Foundation’s forward-looking Vertical Market Outlook Series designed to help readers recognize and understand opportunities and challenges that may affect their businesses.

The report, commissioned by the Foundation and prepared by Engine Group, comprises data and research from a variety of sources, including the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Retail Federation, Deloitte, and McKinsey. Among the range of issues examined in the study are:

  • Macroeconomic environment (labor/employment, impact of COVID)
  • Trends in retail operations (supply chain innovation, new store formats)
  • Increasing roles for technology (digital technology, robotics, data management)
  • Impact on small and mid-size retailers (customer-facing innovations)

“COVID, technology innovations, and consumer demands are driving dramatic changes in the U.S. retail sector that pose numerous challenges and opportunities for the equipment finance industry,” said Tom Ware, Foundation Research Committee Chair. “The range of information and analysis in this study provides critical market intelligence for equipment finance professionals to use in their strategic planning and decision-making.”

Download the full report at https://bit.ly/ELFFRetailReport. All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

 JOIN THE CONVERSATION
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Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
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ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.
###

Media contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Eases Again in March

Washington, DC, March 17, 2022 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the March 2022 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $900 billion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 58.2, easing from the February index of 61.8.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Michael Romanowski, President, Farm Credit Leasing, said, “Supply chain issues continue to hamper equipment availability. The Ukraine conflict has enhanced volatility and is contributing to an already unsettled environment. We continue to work closely with our partners and customers to ensure we are advancing our mission in these uncertain times.”

March 2022 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 58.2, easing from the February index of 61.8.

  • When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 21.4% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 24.1% in February. 50% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 69% the previous month. 28.6% believe business conditions will worsen, an increase from 6.9% in February.
  • 25% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, up from 24.1% in February. 75% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, an increase from 72.4% the previous month. None believe demand will decline, down from 3.5% in February.
  • 21.4% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 17.2% in February. 78.6% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 82.8% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
  • When asked, 46.4% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, up from 44.8% in February. 50% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, a decrease from 55.2% last month. 3.6% expect to hire fewer employees, up from none in February.
  • 3.6% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” a decrease from 10.3% the previous month. 85.7% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” down from 86.2% in February. 10.7% evaluate it as “poor,” an increase from 3.5% last month.
  • 7.1% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a decrease from 24.1% in February. 57.1% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, a decrease from 58.6% last month. 35.7% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 17.2% the previous month.
  • In March 42.9% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 44.8% the previous month. 57.1% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, up from 51.7% in February. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, down from 3.5% last month.

March 2021 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Middle Ticket
“While equity markets, crude, supply chain and global industry trade have all been greatly impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is the suffering and loss of life that is most disturbing. I am proud of Key’s immediate humanitarian efforts on behalf of the Ukrainian people.” Adam Warner, President, Key Equipment Finance

Independent, Small Ticket
“Through 2021, often businesses used their federal government stimulus money to purchase capital equipment and services. The deeper we get into 2022, increasingly, these businesses will return to financing their capital equipment purchases.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC

ABOUT THE MCI

Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross-section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents, and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

  1. Current business conditions
  2. Expected product demand over the next four months
  3. Access to capital over the next four months
  4. Future employment conditions
  5. Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
  6. S. economic conditions over the next six months
  7. Business development spending expectations
  8. Open-ended question for comment

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/, included in the Foundation Forecast eNewsletter, and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

###

Media Contact: Kelli Nienaber, knienaber@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Eases in February

Washington, DC, February 17, 2022 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the February 2022 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $900 billion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 61.8, easing from the January index of 63.9.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC, said “The equipment finance industry is solid right now. With inflation we will experience increases in the cost of money. With the increase in the cost of money, we will experience a slowdown in the economy and delinquencies will increase.”

February 2022 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 61.8, easing from the January index of 63.9.

  • When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 24.1% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 25.9% in January. 69% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, down from 70.4% the previous month. 6.9% believe business conditions will worsen, an increase from 3.7% in January.
  • 24.1% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 25.9% in January. 72.4% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, an increase from 70.4% the previous month. 3.5% believe demand will decline, unchanged from January.
  • 17.2% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 21.4% in January. 82.8% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, an increase from 78.6% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
  • When asked, 44.8% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, up from 39.3% in January. 55.2% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, a decrease from 60.7% last month. None expect to hire fewer employees, unchanged from January.
  • 10.3% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” a decrease from 14.8% the previous month. 86.2% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” up from 81.5% in January. 3.5% evaluate it as “poor,” unchanged from last month.
  • 24.1% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a decrease from 29.6% in January. 58.6% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, a decrease from 63% last month. 17.2% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, an increase from 7.4% the previous month.
  • In February 44.8% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, down from 50% the previous month. 51.7% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, up from 50% in January. 3.5% believe there will be a decrease in spending, up from none last month.

February 2021 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“I see volatility in the market that will provide opportunities for companies nimble enough to embrace them and quick enough to take advantage.” David Normandin, CLFP, President and CEO, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Bank, Middle Ticket
“We’re in an interesting period as we wait to see what the Fed will do. We all know rates will go up, but by how much? Customers are looking at their options, and the savvy ones are looking to lock in today’s low rates for longer term leases.” Michael Romanowski, President, Farm Credit Leasing

ABOUT THE MCI

Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross-section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents, and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

  1. Current business conditions
  2. Expected product demand over the next four months
  3. Access to capital over the next four months
  4. Future employment conditions
  5. Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
  6. S. economic conditions over the next six months
  7. Business development spending expectations
  8. Open-ended question for comment

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/, included in the Foundation Forecast eNewsletter, and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

###

Media Contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

New Foundation Report Examines ESG Issues and Opportunities for the Equipment Finance Industry

Washington, DC, February 10, 2022 – A confluence of global events—from the pandemic to economic downturn to social unrest and extreme weather—has put environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues front and center for businesses in all industries, according to a new study, “The ESG Imperative: Understanding the Opportunities for the Equipment Leasing and Finance Industry,” released by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (Foundation). The study prepared by The Alta Group for the Foundation reviews key ESG elements, looks at their status in terms of strategy, and the risks and opportunities they represent for the equipment finance industry.

Among the details provided in this wide-ranging study are:

  • A review of the definition and evolution of ESG;
  • Specific ESG industry market segment opportunities;
  • Illustrations of the potential impacts on funding and underwriting;
  • Overview of relevant elements of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act;
  • Key insights gleaned from industry research interviews;
  • Background on the current state of disclosure requirements; and
  • A framework for ESG value creation and execution.

“Many equipment leasing and finance companies have not yet fully developed ESG policies and procedures, which can materially impact their future success,” said Tom Ware, Foundation Research Committee Chair. “This comprehensive study provides valuable insights and actionable steps from equipment finance industry leaders who have strategic and tactical experience with ESG issues. It is an indispensable resource to assist organizations in furthering their ESG efforts or, if they have not started them, to give them guidance on where to begin.”

Download the full report at https://bit.ly/FoundationESGstudy.

All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.
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Media contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

Foundation Offering Five $5,000 Scholarships to Promote Careers in the Equipment Finance Industry

Washington, DC, February 1, 2022—The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is accepting applications for its scholarship program for the 2022-2023 academic year. Up to five scholarships of $5,000 each will be awarded to full-time undergraduate or full-time graduate students interested in pursuing a career in the equipment finance industry who are majoring in business, economics, finance, or a related discipline.

To be eligible for consideration for a scholarship in 2022, candidates must submit their applications online by May 20, 2022, and must:

  • Be a full-time undergraduate student, or full-time graduate student, as defined by the accredited educational institution they are attending;
  • Have completed the equivalent of at least two years of full-time college course work, earned 50 percent of the credit hours required for graduation, or have completed an associate’s degree from an accredited educational institution;
  • Have declared his/her/their major course work to be in the field of business, economics, finance, or a related discipline;
  • Have a minimum cumulative grade point average of 3.0.
  • Students with recommendations from professionals in the equipment finance industry will be given preference.

To learn more or to apply for a scholarship, visit https://www.leasefoundation.org/academic-programs/home/scholarship-program/.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

###

Media Contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

 

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Steady in January

Washington, DC, January 20, 2022 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the January 2022 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $900 billion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 63.9, unchanged from the December index.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Jim DeFrank, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, Isuzu Finance of America, Inc., said, “It’s all about supply chain right now. There is demand for equipment, but manufactures are having a hard time satisfying the demand due to parts shortages, workforce issues, etc. Once the supply can match demand, we will see a nice increase in finance and leasing volumes. Hopefully, by the second half of 2022.”

January 2022 Survey Results:
The overall MCI-EFI is 63.9, unchanged from the December index.

  • When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 25.9% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, a decrease from 34.6% in December. 70.4% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, up from 61.5% the previous month. 3.7% believe business conditions will worsen, unchanged from December.
  • 25.9% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 26.9% in December. 70.4% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, a decrease from 73.1% the previous month. 3.7% believe demand will decline, up from none in December.
  • 21.4% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, up from 19.2% in December. 78.6% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, a decrease from 80.8% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
  • When asked, 39.3% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, down from 42.3% in December. 60.7% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, an increase from 57.7% last month. None expect to hire fewer employees, unchanged from December.
  • 14.8% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” a decrease from 19.2% the previous month. 81.5% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” up from 76.9% in December. 3.7% evaluate it as “poor,” unchanged from last month.
  • 29.6% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, an increase from 19.2% in December. 63% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, an increase from 61.5% last month. 7.4% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, a decrease from 19.2% the previous month.
  • In January 50% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, up from 46.2% the previous month. 50% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, down from 53.9% in December. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.

January 2021 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Small Ticket
“2022 will be an interesting year with many challenges and headwinds that will create opportunities for organizations that are positioned well and are nimble enough to take advantage.” David Normandin, CLFP, President and CEO, Wintrust Specialty Finance

Bank, Middle Ticket
“Supply chain issues continue to be our biggest headwind. With the Fed anticipating raising interest rates, we expect customers to lock in long-term financing at today’s low rates.” Michael Romanowski, President, Farm Credit Leasing

Independent, Middle Ticket
“While the seemingly never-ending pandemic, fueled by the Omicron variant, is creating havoc in certain sectors, the industry enjoyed a strong year in FY 2021 and is positioned to prosper again in FY 2022. Strong underwriting will be rewarded, and those that took too much risk may begin feeling the impact of deteriorating portfolio performance as government stimulus runs out. Competition will keep spreads tight, but increasing costs of funds will force lenders to slowly raise pricing throughout the year.” Bruce J. Winter, President, FSG Capital, Inc.

ABOUT THE MCI

Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross-section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents, and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

  1. Current business conditions
  2. Expected product demand over the next four months
  3. Access to capital over the next four months
  4. Future employment conditions
  5. Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
  6. S. economic conditions over the next six months
  7. Business development spending expectations
  8. Open-ended question for comment

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/, included in the Foundation Forecast eNewsletter, and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

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Media Contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Eases in December

Washington, DC, December 16, 2021 – The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) releases the December 2021 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) today. The index reports a qualitative assessment of both the prevailing business conditions and expectations for the future as reported by key executives from the $900 billion equipment finance sector. Overall, confidence in the equipment finance market is 63.9, a decrease from the November index of 64.6.

When asked about the outlook for the future, MCI-EFI survey respondent Daniel J. Krajewski, President and CEO, Sertant Capital, LLC, said, “The near-term future of the equipment finance industry shows promise for continued expansion. As infrastructure bills are passed and implemented there will be a demand for many asset classes from construction through IT platforms. This, of course, will need to be supported by increased manufacturing capacity to build all the required capital goods. I do have concerns about the political atmosphere that currently exists in the U.S. that may slow down or even kill the entire infrastructure bill, and secondly, the supply chain issues that have bottlenecked the product delivery system.”

December 2021 Survey Results:

The overall MCI-EFI is 63.9, a decrease from the November index of 64.6.

  • When asked to assess their business conditions over the next four months, 34.6% of executives responding said they believe business conditions will improve over the next four months, unchanged from November. 61.5% believe business conditions will remain the same over the next four months, up from 46.2% the previous month. 3.9% believe business conditions will worsen, down from 19.2% in November.
  • 26.9% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase over the next four months, down from 42.3% in November. 73.1% believe demand will “remain the same” during the same four-month time period, an increase from 50% the previous month. None believe demand will decline, down from 7.7% in November.
  • 19.2% of the respondents expect more access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions over the next four months, down from 26.9% in November. 80.8% of executives indicate they expect the “same” access to capital to fund business, an increase from 73.1% last month. None expect “less” access to capital, unchanged from the previous month.
  • When asked, 42.3% of the executives report they expect to hire more employees over the next four months, down from 53.9% in November. 57.7% expect no change in headcount over the next four months, an increase from 46.2% last month. None expect to hire fewer employees, unchanged from November.
  • 19.2% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” an increase from 15.4% the previous month. 76.9% of the leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “fair,” down from 80.8% in November. 3.9% evaluate it as “poor,” unchanged from last month.
  • 19.2% of the survey respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will get “better” over the next six months, a decrease from 23.1% in November. 61.5% indicate they believe the U.S. economy will “stay the same” over the next six months, an increase from 57.7% last month. 19.2% believe economic conditions in the U.S. will worsen over the next six months, unchanged from the previous month.
  • In December 46.2% of respondents indicate they believe their company will increase spending on business development activities during the next six months, up from 42.3% the previous month. 53.9% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending, down from 57.7% in November. None believe there will be a decrease in spending, unchanged from last month.

December 2021 MCI-EFI Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership:

Bank, Middle Ticket
“Demand for capital expenditures remains robust. Customers are looking to mitigate labor shortage challenges with automation. We believe this trend will continue through 2022 and into 2023. Supply chain headwinds continue to frustrate automation plans.” Michael Romanowski, President, Farm Credit Leasing

“Demand for equipment loans and leases remains strong in nearly all sectors. Large U.S. businesses are looking to fixed-rate financing as a strategy to mitigate the impact of inflation.” Alan Sikora, CLFP, CEO, First American, an RBC / City National Company

“Our clients remain resilient, powering though the pandemic, supply chain issues and inflation to meet their objectives. Key remains vigilant that the continued battle against Covid will eventually lessen the risks to our customers and our economy.” Adam Warner, President, Key Equipment Finance

Independent, Middle Ticket
“There is still significant liquidity in the markets and productivity continues to thrive. The impact of inflation and upcoming rate hikes could provide pause, but we continue to see strong demand on capital equipment expenditures. The biggest hurdle is prolonged supply chain disruptions, but it’s encouraging to see organizations transforming to address them innovatively going into 2022.” Aylin Cankardes, President, Rockwell Financial Group

ABOUT THE MCI

Why an MCI-EFI?
Confidence in the U.S. economy and the capital markets is a critical driver to the equipment finance industry. Throughout history, when confidence increases, consumers and businesses are more apt to acquire more consumer goods, equipment, and durables, and invest at prevailing prices. When confidence decreases, spending and risk-taking tend to fall. Investors are said to be confident when the news about the future is good and stock prices are rising.

Who participates in the MCI-EFI?
The respondents are comprised of a wide cross-section of industry executives, including large-ticket, middle-market and small-ticket banks, independents, and captive equipment finance companies. The MCI-EFI uses the same pool of 50 organization leaders to respond monthly to ensure the survey’s integrity. Since the same organizations provide the data from month to month, the results constitute a consistent barometer of the industry’s confidence.

How is the MCI-EFI designed?
The survey consists of seven questions and an area for comments, asking the respondents’ opinions about the following:

  1. Current business conditions
  2. Expected product demand over the next four months
  3. Access to capital over the next four months
  4. Future employment conditions
  5. Evaluation of the current U.S. economy
  6. S. economic conditions over the next six months
  7. Business development spending expectations
  8. Open-ended question for comment

How may I access the MCI-EFI?
Survey results are posted on the Foundation website, https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/monthly-confidence-index/, included in the Foundation Forecast eNewsletter, and included in press releases. Survey respondent demographics and additional information about the MCI are also available at the link above.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through charitable individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

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Media Contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org

2022 Economic Outlook Forecasts 4.6% Expansion in Equipment and Software Investment Growth and 3.5% GDP Growth

Washington, DC, December 15, 2021 – Low financial stress, an expanding housing sector, and increased federal spending on infrastructure are expected to propel equipment and software investment growth of 4.6 percent for 2022. Annual U.S. GDP growth for 2022 is forecast at 3.5 percent, according to the 2022 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation. The Foundation’s report, which is focused on the nearly $1 trillion equipment leasing and finance industry, highlights key trends in equipment investment and places them in the context of the broader U.S. economic climate.

Nancy Pistorio, Foundation Chair and President of Madison Capital LLC, said, “This report provides a thorough examination of the wide range of conditions that will impact the U.S. economy and business investment next year. Despite uncertainty around new Covid variants,  ongoing supply chain issues, and inflation, positive factors should outweigh the headwinds. Robust consumer demand, a strong labor market, and increased equipment and software investment—the lifeblood of the equipment finance industry–look promising. We can look forward to ‘getting back to business’ in 2022, provided supply chain issues ease significantly and the pandemic is effectively curbed.”

Highlights from the 2022 Outlook include:

  • While equipment and software investment is forecast to grow 4.6 percent (annualized) in 2022, supply chain constraints, high inflation, and tighter monetary policy are key headwinds to growth.
  • The U.S. economy slowed in fall 2021 as the pandemic worsened and supply chain constraints snarled global trade and drove inflation to multi-decade highs. However, growth in Q4 has likely rebounded, and the economy appears poised for an above-average year in 2022.
  • The U.S. manufacturing sector should continue to expand at a healthy rate in 2022, although supply chain issues, hiring difficulties, and high inflation could dampen industrial sector output, particularly during the first half of the year.
  • On Main Street, the outlook has grown increasingly cloudy. Small firms are more susceptible to surging input costs and labor scarcity than large firms, which may weigh on small businesses as the new year gets underway. On the positive side, consumer demand remains robust, and the winter months should be smoother this year than last.
  • The Federal Reserve officials recently shifted their positions in response to new data and now acknowledge that inflationary pressures are likely here to stay. The Fed is now expected to end quantitative easing earlier than planned and raise interest rates at least once by mid-2022. Multiple rate hikes are possible in 2022, particularly if job growth stays on track.

The Foundation-Keybridge U.S. Equipment & Software Investment Momentum Monitor, which is released in conjunction with the Economic Outlook, tracks 12 equipment and software investment verticals. In addition, the Momentum Monitor Sector Matrix provides a customized data visualization of current values of each of the 12 verticals based on recent momentum and historical strength. Eleven verticals are peaking/slowing, and one is accelerating. Over the next three to six months, year over year:

  • Agriculture machinery investment growth will continue to decelerate.
  • Construction machinery investment growth will decelerate, though likely remain in positive territory.
  • Materials handling equipment investment growth should remain positive.
  • All other industrial equipment investment growth should slow.
  • Medical equipment investment growth should remain in positive territory, but will likely decelerate.
  • Mining and oilfield machinery investment growth should stay strong.
  • Aircraft investment growth will continue to decelerate, though remain positive.
  • Ships and boats investment growth is expected to remain in healthy territory.
  • Railroad equipment investment growth is expected to remain strong.
  • Trucks investment growth should remain healthy.
  • Computers investment growth should remain positive, but is unlikely to accelerate.
  • Software investment growth may have peaked, though should remain robust.

The full report of the Momentum Monitor is now available at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/momentum-monitor/.

The Foundation produces the Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook report in partnership with economic and public policy consulting firm Keybridge Research. The annual economic forecast provides the U.S. macroeconomic outlook, credit market conditions, and key economic indicators. The report will be updated quarterly throughout 2022.

Download the full report at https://www.leasefoundation.org/industry-resources/u-s-economic-outlook/. All Foundation studies are available for free download from the Foundation’s online library at http://store.leasefoundation.org/.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LeaseFoundation
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LeaseFoundation
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/10989281/
Vimeo: https://vimeo.com/elffchannel

ABOUT THE FOUNDATION
The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation is a 501c3 non-profit organization that propels the equipment finance sector—and its people—forward through industry-specific knowledge, intelligence, and programs that contribute to industry innovation, individual careers, and the overall betterment of the equipment leasing and finance industry. The Foundation is funded through individual and corporate donations. Learn more at www.leasefoundation.org.

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Media Contact: Charlie Visconage, cvisconage@leasefoundation.org