The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation (the Foundation) today released its July 2025 Monthly Confidence Index for the Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI), revealing a third consecutive month of increasing confidence in the equipment finance market. The index, which provides a qualitative assessment from key executives within the $1.3 trillion sector, climbed to 61.6 in July, up from 58.2 in June.
Providing an executive perspective on the MCI-EFI’s findings and the outlook ahead, Jeffry Elliott, CLFP, CEO of Elevex Capital and Equipment Leasing & Finance Association Treasurer, shares his outlook: “As we navigate the second half of 2025, concerns around inflationary pressures driven by escalating tariffs and the economic drag from intensified immigration enforcement are becoming increasingly pronounced. These forces are not only straining supply chains, but also constraining labor availability—two critical components for productivity and growth in the commercial equipment finance sector.”
Elliot added, “However, there is a silver lining on the horizon. The push for onshoring and domestic manufacturing, while not an immediate remedy, holds long-term promise. As companies reconfigure supply chains and invest in U.S.-based production, we anticipate a resurgence in demand for equipment financing—particularly in automation, logistics, and infrastructure. Looking ahead, the groundwork being laid today for a more self-reliant industrial base could usher in a new era of opportunity for the equipment finance industry.”
July 2025 Survey Results
- Business Conditions – When assessing the next four months, 37.5% of responding executives believe business conditions will improve (up from 29.6% in June). The majority, 58.3%, believe business conditions will remain the same (down from 59.3% in June) and 4.2% believe business conditions will worsen (down from 11.1% in June).
- Capex Demand – For the next four months, 37.5% of the survey respondents believe demand for leases and loans to fund capital expenditures (capex) will increase (up from 29.6% in June). 58.3% expect demand to remain the same (up from 55.6%), and 4.2% believe demand will decline (down from 14.8% in June).
- Access to Capital – Over the next four months, 16.7% of respondents expect greater access to capital to fund equipment acquisitions, a decrease from 18.5% in June. The majority, 70.8%, anticipate the “same” access to capital to fund business, down from 81.5% the previous month. 8.3% expect “less” access to capital, up from none in June.
- Employment – Regarding employment over the next four months, 20.8% of executives expect to hire more employees, a decrease from 33.3% in June. 70.8% foresee no change in headcount (up from 66.7% last month), and 8.3% expect to hire fewer employees, up from none in June.
- U.S. Economy – 8.3% of leadership evaluate the current U.S. economy as “excellent,” up from none in June. 91.7% assess it as “fair,” down from 96.3% last month, with none evaluating it as “poor” (down from 3.7% in June).
- Economic Outlook – Over the next six months, 41.7% of respondents believe that U.S. economic conditions will “get better,” a notable increase from 29.6% in June. Additionally, 41.7% expect the U.S. economy to “stay the same” (down from 51.9%), and 16.7% believe economic conditions will worsen, a slight decrease from 18.5% last month.
- Business Development Spending – Over the next six months, 25% of respondents believe their company will increase spending on business development activities, up from 18.5% in June. 75% believe there will be “no change” in business development spending (down from 77.8%), with none believing there will be a decrease in spending (down from 3.7% last month).
Survey Demographics
Market Segment
- Bank 50%
- Captive 16.7%
- Independent 33.3%
- Other 0%
Market Segments Based on Transaction Size of New Business Volume
- Large-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size Over $5 Million) 8.3%
- Middle-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $250,000 – $5 Million) 41.7%
- Small-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Size of $25,000 – $249,999) 50%
- Micro-Ticket (New Business Volume Avg. Transaction Less Than $25,000) 0%
Organization Size
- Under $50 Million 8.3%
- $50 Million – $250 Million 25%.
- $250 Million – $1 Billion 29.1%
- Over $1 Billion 37.5%
July 2025 Survey Comments from Industry Executive Leadership
Bank, Small Ticket
“I am optimistic about the commercial equipment leasing and finance industry because of the results. Specifically, 2025 has been a strong year of origination growth and portfolio performance that is within guidance and improving. While sentiment has been low, it is improving to better align with what I actually see happening in the market. I am cautiously optimistic that 2025 will be a solid year for the industry.” David Normandin, CLFP, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wintrust Specialty Finance
Independent, Small Ticket
“Tariffs do not appear to be driving inflation as many economists projected. Any fed funds rate reduction would help increase economic activity.” James D. Jenks, CEO, Global Finance and Leasing Services, LLC
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