2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook – Q4
Download:
Account Holders Log In
Non-Account Holders, Use the Form Below
*Required fields
Overview
Highlights from the 2025 Outlook – Q4 Update include:
U.S. Economy: Overall, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience to the cross-currents that have characterized the last 10 months, with real GDP expanding 3.8% in Q2 after contracting -0.6% in Q1. Improvements in consumer demand this summer eased concerns of a near-term economic downturn, and another quarter of solid economic growth appears likely in Q3. At the same time, weak job growth underscores the potential need for the Fed to shore up growth by lowering interest rates over the coming months, despite worries that such a move could fuel more inflation.
Business Sentiment: Businesses remain generally optimistic with both large and small firms planning capital expenditures in the coming months. The Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook capital spending index rebounded to 77.4 in Q3, while the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) reported in September that 21% of respondents are planning capital expenditures over the next six months. Equipment finance industry surveys largely agree: in October, the Foundation’s Monthly Confidence Index held steady above the historical average for the fifth consecutive month. Additionally, ELFA’s CapEx Finance Index shows upticks in new business volume in both July and August, though year-to-date volume is 2.7% below the same period in 2024.
Equipment and Software Investment: Equipment and software investment continues to be a bright spot in the economy. Technology Equipment & Software and Transportation Equipment accounted for most of the industry’s expansion over the first half of 2025, though Construction Machinery, Agricultural Machinery, Medical Equipment, and Industrial Machinery have all experienced positive year-over-year growth. The impact of the AI buildout is difficult to overstate: indeed, investment in information processing equipment contributed more to economic growth than consumer spending from January to June.
Equipment Finance Industry: Positive business sentiment bodes well for the industry and suggests that demand for equipment and software investment—especially in the Technology Equipment & Software vertical—should remain healthy in the near-term, creating opportunities for financing.