FOUNDATION FORECAST

March/April 2008





Message From the Executive Director

With first quarter ending before we know it, industry leaders say they are staving off negativity by planning for the future. But, we also know that, given current economic conditions, not every company will have the luxury of (read: budget for) conducting their own research. The Foundation is pleased to be filling the role of delivering third-party credible research to help the industry through this challenging time.

Several new studies will debut in coming months including a study on the intermodal and container market, credit swaps, and the Brazilian market place. It cannot be said enough – thank you donors! Without you, we would not be able to fulfill our mission of bringing this future-forward thinking to the industry – much needed in today's tough times.

 

Lisa A. Levine, CAE

Executive Director


Expanding Your Knowledge Base in Distressing Times


While economists, government and pundits mull over whether or not the U.S. is officially in a recession or not, business leaders must still go to work every day and deal with the issues at hand. Now, more than ever, say industry experts, companies must hunker down, get back to basics and nurture their customer relationships. But, they also must continue to explore new markets and get ready for when the tide turns. While budgets may be hard pressed to conduct original research to deal with current challenges and prepare for future opportunities, the Foundation will continue to use its resources to fill finance companies' critical research needs.

Read More Here

Getting Ready for Growth in Intermodal and Container Sector

This fall a new Foundation study will debut, "The Next Generation of Intermodal Transport Terminals: An Analysis of Financing Models," which will explore financing models for the next generation of intermodal transportation terminals, particularly for intermodal equipment in port and rail facilities.

A new wave of investments in intermodal transportation is currently underway, as the North American freight transport system buckles under the weight of the last two decades growth in containerized traffic and global trade. Many intermodal terminals such as ports and rail facilities are facing serious limits in their practices.

Read More Here


Credit Swap Study Available Soon

A new Foundation study, How to Improve Your Risk Return Profile Using Credit Default Swaps, written by Dr. Deborah Cernauskas of Northern Illinois University, and Dr. Andrew Kumiega of Illinois Institute of Technology, will be available soon. The study focuses on ways equipment finance companies may mitigate credit risk to allow for additional volume capacity and conduct more business. While not every financier is using this vehicle, it is available and generating more interest in the market.

The study will show how a credit default swap can be used to hedge the counterparty risk associated with a portfolio of leases and at the same time increase the net present value of uncertain lease cash flows.

Read More Here


Brazil: The New Promising Frontier

Brazil
. Russia. India. Just a few countries in which the members of the equipment finance industry have been growing increasingly interested. Due in part to the success of the 2005 Foundation study, "Breaking Down Great Walls of China" study, and in response to the growing interest in other countries, the Foundation has commissioned an international series, focusing on India, Brazil, Hispanic Latin America, and Mexico. A new study will be delivered every two months with the first study on Brazil available this spring.

Read More Here


Study on Bundled Transactions In the Works

 For the last few years, the legal and financial risks associated with bundled transactions have been discussed significantly. Yet, financing and billing structures proliferate. Why? The market forces that have caused this growth will be discussed in depth in a new Foundation study available later this year. The study will focus on understanding why these structures are chosen by businesses, public entities and not-for-profit organizations (including the high satisfaction rate), what spurs vendors to offer them, why equipment finance companies offer them, and the benefits they provide to the overall economy.

Read More Here



Webinar on Alternative Energy Market Gets High Marks

Last month, the Foundation hosted a well-received Webinar on the alternative energy market, attracting more than 100 participants from 35 different locations. An up and coming market for financiers, alternative energy has been identified as a bright spot in the equipment finance market place, though most agree it is still an emerging market.

"The web seminar was a very successful program," said panelists Michael A. Leichtling of Troutman Sanders LLP. [And, the participants received] the benefit of an experienced panel of speakers."

Read More Here

Foundation Events
  
  • The Foundation seeks research study ideas on an ongoing basis. The research committee talks monthly, and ideas should be forwarded to Foundation Executive Director Lisa Levine at llevine@elfaonline.org
  • The Foundation board will meet several times in 2008, including April 9, September 5 and November 5
  • The Journal of Equipment Lease Financing's Editorial Review Board is seeking topics of interest. They meet throughout 2008 to discuss ideas, including May 8, August 7, and November 13. Please forward ideas to Lisa Levine at llevine@elfaonline.org
  • Donations to the Foundation may be made online! Visit www.leasefoundation.org/Donate to make your donation today.

Quick Poll
 
Are you planning on expanding your international presence in 2008 and 2009?

Definitely, yes
probably
probably not
no
not sure


Last Month's Poll

Question: The Foundation is considering many projects in 2008. Which study interests you the most?

 Total responses:  52

Response %
The Perfect Storm II: What can be learned from the Subprime Blues and applied to the equipment finance market?  10%
2008 and Beyond: The Economy's Impact of
Equipment Financing
 22%
Propensity To Finance and Market Size Study –
The next steps

 14%
Transportation market 4%
Healthcare market 14%
New business models and trends 10%
Credit risks and how to manage them 8%
International markets 16%

Other:
What opportunities in France, England (or Europe) and China are ahead of us?


Did You Know?
 

According to data gathered from official numbers of the Brazilian Equipment Leasing Association (ABEL), the Central Bank of Brazil, and The Alta Group's Latin American Region (LAR) 100 report, the leasing portfolio of leasing companies in Brazil was $15.9 billion (US dollars) as of December, 2006. Data released by ABEL, as of September, 2007, shows a domestic portfolio size of $27.6 billion (US dollars).

(Source: Foundation study, "The Carnivale of Equipment Financing," produced by The Alta Group)