FOUNDATION FORECAST

January/February 2008





Message From the Executive Director

Happy New Year! Only 8 weeks into the year, and already 2008 is shaping up to be "one for the books." Thanks to the increased generosity of donors, we are able to take on more projects than ever before – from a new international series to a Perfect Storm II paper addressing lessons learned from the subprime market meltdown. The research committee – comprised of some of the smartest minds in the business – continue to focus our energies on future-focused, third-party research in order to help the industry better understand its opportunities and deal with challenges. And, if the level of donations we have recently received recently are any indication, the Foundation is hitting the mark, time and again. We look forward to putting your donations to hard work in 2008.


Lisa A. Levine, CAE
Executive Director


Industry Future Council Meets, Discusses Industry Opportunities and Challenges

During last year's Industry Future Council (IFC), participating members noted that they were waiting for a "correction" in the marketplace. Later that year, it arrived. What a difference a year makes. This year's Council, which convened in January, said the industry appears to be having a "crisis of confidence," as one IFC member put it.

The questions this year centered around how long and severe the crisis would be, and what could equipment finance companies do to weather the crisis and be prepared to thrive when it's over.


Read More Here

2008: The Year of Research

The time has come where the Foundation can actively explore more research projects than ever before thanks to the increased generosity of donors in 2007. A banner fundraising year, the Foundation is exploring numerous research projects to add to the industry's body of knowledge. The Foundation expects to fund up to $500,000 in research this year. Such topics as new business models and trends, credit risks, and international markets are just a few of the research studies that the Foundation will fund in 2008.

Read More Here




US Equipment Finance Market Study Gets Attention



The
US Equipment Finance Market Study, produced for the Foundation by Global Insight, shows the industry and various stakeholders – from Wall Street to the media – that the equipment finance industry is expansive, growing, and a major player in the U.S. economy. The study reveals the most accurate picture yet of the domestic equipment finance sector: of the $1.1 trillion invested in plant, equipment and software in 2006, 55 percent or $600 billion is financed through loans, leases and lines of credit.

Read More Here


New Securitization Study Coming Soon

While the lease securitization marketplace has slowed to a crawl, a new Foundation study, Is Equipment Lease Securitization Right for You?, will help equipment finance companies determine if lease securitization is right for them when the market shifts, as it inevitably will.

The Foundation, with its eye on the future, commissioned this study in an effort to have the latest research on hand when financiers are ready to explore how they can get involved in securitizing their equipment leases, and deal with the fundamental issues faced by every lease originator that has not yet engaged in lease securitizations.

Read More Here


Webinar To Address The Emerging Alternative Energy Market


The Foundation, known to take on the most timely industry topics, is poised to help the equipment finance industry explore one of the hottest markets today – alternative energy. On March 5, from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. Eastern time, industry members will hear from experts already engaged in this market to help them determine if renewable energy financing is a viable market for them, understand the terms, the equipment, contractual issues, energy pricing and terminology, and learn what makes a project "finance-able," including an explanation of the credit issues, asset performance, residual values, and regulatory issues.

Read More Here



Credit Default Swaps Study Available Soon

A new Foundation study, How To Improve Your Risk Return Profile Using Credit Default Swaps, produced for the Foundation by Dr. Deborah Cernauskas of Northern Illinois University, and Dr. Andrew Kumiega of Illinois Institute of Technology, will be available in early Spring.

Read More Here




Journal Calls for Articles


The Journal of Equipment Lease Financing, published three times a year, includes in-depth articles on topics that range from accounting, legal, tax, legislative, and regulatory issues to summarizing current Foundation research. The Journal editorial board is currently seeking authors and article ideas. Have a topic that you'd like to see covered in the Journal? Consider becoming its author! Or, pass on your idea to Lisa Levine at llevine@elfaonline.org

Articles undergo peer review by the Journal's Editorial Review Board, comprised of industry members and academics.


Foundation Events

  • The Foundation seeks research study ideas on an ongoing basis. The research committee meets monthly, and ideas should be forwarded to Foundation Executive Director Lisa Levine at llevine@elfaonline.org

  • The Foundation board will meet several times in 2008, including April 9, September 5 and November 5

  • The Journal of Equipment Lease Financing's Editorial Review Board is seeking topics of interest. They meet throughout 2008 to discuss ideas, including May 8, August 7, and November 13. Please forward ideas to Lisa Levine at llevine@elfaonline.org

  • Donations to the Foundation may be made online! Visit our donor page to make your donation today.



Quick Poll

The Foundation is considering many projects in 2008. Which study interests you the most?


The Perfect Storm II: What can be learned from the Subprime Blues and applied to the equipment finance market?
2008 and Beyond: The Economy's Impact of Equipment Financing
Propensity To Finance and Market Size Study – the next steps
Transportation market
Healthcare market
New business models and trends
Credit risks and how to manage them
International markets

Other:


Last Month's Poll

Question: As you plan ahead for 2008's additions to your portfolio, or deals you will originate, do you expect the mix between the "real" leases and loan-like leases to be:

Responses %
Virtually all real leases
15%
Majority (60%+) real leases
7%
50/50 (leases and loan-like leases)
11%
Majority (60%+) loan-like leases
35%
Virtually all loan-like leases
30%
No leases at all
2%

Total Responses: 47

Did You Know?

The securitization industry began in the early seventies and now represents approximately seven trillion dollars in securitized assets. The 1985 securitization of Sperry's computer equipment leases marked the beginnings of the equipment leasing securitization market.  However, the market did not take off until 1993 and it peaked in 1999 with 35 transactions totaling $13.6 billion before dropping off precipitously in 2002.  By 2006 the market had recovered somewhat with 12 public and private issues representing $8.4 billion, but this was still considerably below the 1999 peak. (Source: Is Equipment Lease Securitization Right for You? Foundation report)